2021 Tail Risks, Bottleneck Fatigue, Economy Splinters: Eco Day

Welcome to Wednesday, Asia. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

  • From slow-to-materialize U.S. stimulus to post-Brexit trade disruptions, runaway Indian inflation and a Chinese bond market meltdown, there’s a lot that could go wrong, writes Tom Orlik
  • Container shipping, the backbone of the global trading system, shows signs of fatigue as the pandemic descends into its darkest days
  • The U.S. economy has splintered along state and city lines, with the speed of the rebound largely dependent on the magnitude of local business restrictions to combat an unending surge in Covid-19 cases
  • Nine months of U.K.-EU trade talks are hanging in the balance, while 40,000 lemons have disappeared into the chaos of U.K. ports. In a rare positive, France will start to reopen critical trade and transport links by midnight. Meantime, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is looking to pandemic programs to help out businesses if talks fail
  • India’s economic activity showed signs of stabilizing in November, even as concerns mount over fresh virus outbreaks
  • Thailand will likely keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low while monitoring the recent rally in the baht
  • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government rejected a plan by China’s Shandong Gold Mining Co. to buy a gold miner that operates in the Canadian Arctic, potentially inflaming a diplomatic feud
  • Robert Lighthizer has built a career on being a wily contrarian. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that President Donald Trump’s trade czar is going out tilting at a consensus among mainstream economists
  • Israel’s brittle governing coalition collapsed over a budget crisis, sending the election-fatigued country to its fourth vote in two years
  • Swedish overall confidence levels ended a seven-month climb as the nation tightened restrictions to battle a surge in Covid-19 infections
  • Japanese companies have pared back year-end bonuses by the most since the global financial crisis, putting additional pressure on consumer spending amid signs of a slowing economic recovery
  • Pakistan said it got debt payment relief from its creditors including from the G-20, a move that will help Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government bolster its finances and foreign-exchange reserves
  • With deals to secure more vaccines than it needs and legislation to distribute it for free, Japan seems to have its plans in place. Yet a tense public history with vaccines and a cautious approval process has some worried over how quickly the country can return to normal

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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