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Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

(Bloomberg) --

Good morning. There’s talk of German stimulus, Italy has a big political week ahead and the U.S. and China are still talking. Here’s what’s moving markets.

German Stimulus

As negative yields and inverted curves grip markets, a key question is whether Germany could be willing to loosen its austerity-tightened purse strings and pump money into the economy should recession rear its head. There was a hint of this on Friday but over the weekend Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said the country could add about 50 billion euros of spending, putting a number on the possible stimulus for the first time while also indicating nothing was imminent on that front.

Italian Split

It may not seem long since the last time it was a huge week for Italian politics, but this week is indeed huge for Italian politics. Ahead of a confidence vote in the government on Tuesday, the coalition of the League and Five Star appears to be beyond healing, with the latter moving to distance itself from Deputy Prime Minister and League leader Matteo Salvini. If it does lead to new elections, which is a distinct possibility, Salvini’s focus on immigration may prove less popular than he thinks, with the economy the bigger issue for many voters. All eyes on Rome this week.

‘Talking!’

The rollercoaster that is keeping up with the state of U.S.-China trade talks begins with a degree of positivity. U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted his team is “doing very well with China, and talking!” That came after Larry Kudlow, the White House economic adviser, said further talks with Chinese negotiators will take place over the next 10 days and pushed back against the notion that a recession is on the horizon. Note too that the U.S. failed in its bid to block the release of an Iranian supertanker accused of hauling oil to Syria and that vessel is now on its way to Greece.

Peaceful Reset

Following arguably the most violent week of protests in Hong Kong so far, more moderate demonstrators appeared to have taken charge of the proceedings over the 11th weekend of unrest, keeping it peaceful and marching, umbrella-protected, through the rain. The city’s financial secretary added to the warnings about the economic impact of the protests, saying the city is facing an “economic typhoon” caused by a combination of the turmoil at home and by the U.S.-China trade war.

Coming Up...

Asian stocks rose and European and U.S. futures are higher ahead of a busy week on the data front and with the Federal Reserve minutes coming on Wednesday. Oil is higher after a drone attack on a Saudi Arabian oil field. On the economic data front on Monday, we’ll have inflation numbers for the euro area and we’ve already had U.K. house price data from Rightmove, which showed London asking prices rise on an annual basis for the first time in two years.

What We’ve Been Reading

This is what’s caught our eye over the weekend.

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