U.S. Prepares New Tariffs, Williams Warning, U.K. Jobs: Eco Day

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Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

  • The U.S. prepared to hit China with new tariffs even as Donald Trump said he’ll meet Xi Jinping next month. Meanwhile, China is hardening its own rhetoric
    • Economists expect the trade war between the world’s two largest economies to get worse before it gets better -- culminating in a deal by year-end
    • Trump’s tariffs are starting to look like his goal and not a tool for to create leverage in trade talks, Bloomberg’s Shawn Donnan says
  • The trade war is having real life consequences for policy makers. U.S. tariffs are already starting to increase inflation and will have a greater impact as they go up, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams
    • Still, options trading suggests there’s appetite for bets on an even more dovish Fed. Here’s a chart of what’s priced in
  • The U.K.’s strong labor market continued in the first quarter, as wages rose and the jobless rate hit a 44-year low
    • Still, a new report says Britain risks following the U.S. on declining life expectancy and stagnant wages for the less-educated portion of the population if the causes of inequality go unchecked
  • Benoit Coeure is possibly the best-qualified candidate to be the next European Central Bank president, but that may not be enough
    • The European Union’s ex-communist contingent probably weathered a lackluster economic performance by the euro area last quarter
  • Finally, another fiscal timebomb is about to go off in Brazil as investors and government officials remain focused on efforts to reform the social security system.

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