Why Is India’s Deposit Growth Weak? RBI Has An Answer
A slowdown in growth in deposits across Indian lenders amid rising demand for credit has raised concerns about a liquidity gap in the nation’s financial system and prevented banks from cutting interest rates.
But the question often asked is why deposit growth is weak.
A study by the Reserve Bank of India, published in its monthly bulletin, lists out the key determinants for deposit growth starting with income and returns on other competing savings and investment products.
Bank deposits are an integral part of financial savings of Indian households and the backbone to bank lending. Growth in deposits fell to its lowest in 53 years to 3 percent in November 2017, the central bank said in its report titled Bank Deposits: Underlying Dynamics. It, however, started picking up early last year. As of March 2019, deposit growth at 10 percent was marginally higher than its 15-year trend, the report said.
Here are factors that may have led to a fall in deposit growth, as per RBI’s study
Bank deposits are typically considered as a function of interest rate and income. The closest co-movement was observed between deposit growth and nominal gross domestic product growth, the study said. Deposit growth was strong in the 2003-2008 period, when nominal growth in the economy was high and slowed thereafter. The co-movement of deposit growth with the growth of nominal GDP, the report said, is stronger than the correlation with interest rates on deposits, suggesting that income effects are more powerful than price effects in driving deposit growth.
Besides, financial inclusion boosts deposit mobilisation over long run, the report said, making a case for expansion of bank branches in unbanked areas.
Small Savings Deposits
Mobilisation of deposits seems to be affected by substitution effects emanating from small savings in the short run, the report said. Incentives such as income tax treatment for schemes resulted in people preferring small savings over bank deposits. The RBI’s study also showed that substitution effects stemming from small savings were more frequent than correlation with other financial market instruments such as investment in equity linked instruments.
The substitution effect between small savings and bank deposits prevents banks from cutting deposit rates below the returns offered by small savings.
Stock Markets More Attractive
The growing popularity of mutual funds and other stock market instruments may also be responsible for the deceleration in deposit growth, according to the report. Traditional preference for physical assets such as real estate and gold, too, have declined. A diversion of financial savings from deposits to stock market assets is indicated by opposing movements in Sensex returns and deposit growth in the short run, the report said.