U.S. Yield Curve, China’s Recovery, ECB’s Negative Rate: Eco Day

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Welcome to Thursday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• Rate decisions are due in South Africa, Egypt and the Czech Republic
• The European Central Bank’s chief economist says there needs to be a solid monetary-policy case before officials act to mitigate side effects of negative interest rates on banks
• Economists are actually terrible at forecasting recessions
• As the yield curve flashes warning signs of a U.S. recession, some key economic indicators are offering more conflicting signals. The economy may have slowed more sharply than previously reported, potentially dragging full-year growth below the 3 percent mark President Donald Trump has boasted about achieving
• Whether it’s money-laundering scandals in the Baltic region or lingering memories of Greece’s debt crisis, bankers in Bulgaria worry that financial bother elsewhere will harm the country’s bid to adopt the euro
• China’s economy is showing further signs of recovery after months of slowdown, though downward pressures still persist. The nation’s Premier is instead worried about a global downturn
• Britain’s no-deal flotilla is preparing to sail, shuttling trucks carrying critical goods into the country starting Friday -- at least two weeks before a possible split from EU raises any trade barriers
• Tom Orlik sends a memo to Turkey, reminding it that its attempts to manage currency depreciation aren’t likely to work
• Meantime, the White House’s chief economist said Stephen Moore would likely tone down his rhetoric “if” he’s nominated to the Fed board. Moore owes more than $75,000 in taxes and other penalties, government records show
• Israel’s long-term economic expansion is likely to fall off in the coming decades, the Bank of Israel said
• Prospects remain grim for this year’s worst-performing major currency as Sweden’s central bank may recharge its quantitative-easing program

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Jeffrey Black in Hong Kong at jblack25@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeffrey Black at jblack25@bloomberg.net, Karthikeyan Sundaram, Pradeep Kurup

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