JPMorgan Asset Buys Defensive Stocks as Asian Cycle Quickens
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. tax cuts and a deteriorating trade backdrop risk speeding up the valuation cycle in Asian equities, and are prompting J.P. Morgan Asset Management Ltd. to buy more defensive stocks like toll-road operators.
While Asia is only two to three years into the recovery from the 2015-2016 downturn, there’s a rising possibility of a shortened economic cycle, said Julie Ho, a Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset. That may be pushing the region’s stocks closer to a late-cycle environment, said Ho, who co-manages around $4.4 billion of Asian equities.
“The remarkable late-cycle fiscal expansion in the U.S. raises a valid question as to whether a more aggressive monetary tightening might be required at some point in the future,” she said in an email interview. “The trade disputes represent a tail risk, which has affected sentiment and may potentially impact the real economy should there be no resolution.”
Ho said she’s building back exposure to Chinese and Australian toll-road operators, Indian regulated utilities and Singaporean and Australian real-estate investment trusts. Banks should also fare well as rising interest rates drive better net-interest margins and return on equity, said Ho, who co-manages the JPMorgan Asia Equity Dividend Fund and the JPMorgan Asia Pacific Income Fund.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index fell for a fourth day on Tuesday, declining 0.1 percent as of 1:12 p.m. in Hong Kong. The gauge has dropped around 14 percent from a peak in late January.
How long are valuation cycles and why is this one different?
- A typical valuation cycle in stocks has tended to last about 5-7 years, with troughs in 1998, 2003, 2008 and in 2015 and 2016, which was led by a drop in commodity prices
- “My base case is that we’re in mid-cycle, and that’s supported by current profitability, which has recovered but is not excessive, and valuations, which are actually still below long-term averages”
- But there’s a rising possibility of a shortened cycle, due to the late-cycle status of the dominant U.S. economy and the ongoing trade disputes
- “Although we don’t expect a recession anytime soon, in a typical late cycle, characteristics that distinguish resilient equity portfolios include low beta and value-style investing”
How is your investment approach changing to reflect this?
- “Equities can still deliver attractive returns as the economy enters late cycle and we’re constructive on Asian stocks, especially when considering their valuation”
- "With earnings still expected to grow in the mid-to-high single digit range, our expectation is that Asian equities will trade within their long-term average of 1.5 to 1.8 price-to-book”
- At the moment, the biggest overweights are in financials and defensives
- “Historically, we have had between 20% and 65% of our equity income portfolios in defensive stocks, which is a wide range and shows that we can alter our strategy materially if valuations justify it. Today we are at just under 30% in defensives. We are not looking to be explicitly defensive yet, but have increased the weight from its lows”
Specifically, what sectors and companies are you favoring?
- “We’re positive on Hong Kong and Singaporean banks. Both markets track the U.S. interest-rate cycle and continue to have solid loan growth demand”
- “Stocks with defensive characteristics -- utilities or so-called bond proxies -- once looked prohibitively expensive for valuation-driven investors. Today, that’s no longer the case, as many of those stocks have de-rated”
- For example, “Jiangsu Expressway Co., which owns and operates the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway, de-rated by more than -30% on a price-to-earnings basis from July 2016 to July of last year. Yet they operate one of the most trafficked and mature toll roads and boasts an uninterrupted dividend policy and a history of stable growth"
- “Similarly, Australian toll-road company Transurban Group’s P/E has de-rated -25 percent, despite having generated underlying earnings growth of more than 10 percent and being constantly underpinned by solid free cash flow and attractive dividend growth”
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