Policy Baby Steps, German Surplus, U.K. Productivity: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Good morning, Americas. Here’s the latest news from Bloomberg Economics to get your Thursday started.

• Some of the world’s biggest central banks are taking baby steps on the path away from easy money despite uncertain inflation outlooks that suggest they need to tread more carefully
• Germany’s trade surplus is likely to stay large no matter how hard Donald Trump tries to make it disappear
• Britain’s productivity performance is the worst in three centuries, with no end in sight. Still, better news for the U.K. may come on Friday, with a report forecast to show overall growth picked up in the second quarter
  • Meanwhile, Britain’s first female chief economic adviser in the Treasury – and the government’s most senior economist – has a lot on her plate
• China confirmed it will impose 25 percent tariffs on an additional $16 billion of U.S. imports from Aug. 23, matching an earlier move from Washington
• Also on China, factory inflation held up in July even as commodity prices eased, and consumer prices gained slightly more than expected. Bloomberg Economics expects a cooling economy to contain inflationary pressures overall
• In New Zealand, the central bank said it expects to keep interest rates at a record low for another two years as the outlook for economic growth weakens
• Meanwhile, Philippine central bank Governor Nestor Espenilla delivered on his pledge for strong action to curb inflation, raising the benchmark rate by a bigger-than-usual half a percentage point, and promised to do more if needed

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net

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