Tariff Countdown, Fed Minutes, Carney Hits Upbeat Note: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Good morning Americas. Here’s news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your Thursday started:

  • Tomorrow may see the world’s two largest economies slide deeper into a trade conflict. If the U.S. begins imposing additional steep tariffs on Chinese imports as of Friday, then Beijing is poised to respond in kind. With further tit-for-tat levies already threatened, this week could mark the start of a new and dangerous phase.
  • The Federal Reserve is due to release minutes of its June 12-13 policy meeting later Thursday. A discussion about how high U.S. interest rates should go in this tightening cycle could feature prominently
  • The U.K. economy is showing signs of rebounding from a sluggish first quarter of the year, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said Thursday, in comments that leave the door open to an interest-rate increase as early as next month
    • It’s not all good news though, with Carney also saying that the global economy has already taken a hit from rising trade tensions
  • Some ECB policy makers are uneasy that investors aren’t betting on an interest-rate hike until the end of 2019
  • German factory orders surged in May, ending a string of declines and suggesting a much-awaited pick-up in growth momentum in Europe’s largest economy
  • Southeast Asia’s central bankers are taking different policy stances even as their economies get slammed by the same headwinds
  • Finally, read how the trade war between the U.S. and China reflects an escalating economic and military rivalry between a status quo power and one of the most remarkable growth miracles in history

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