Norway’s Economy Keeps Pace in First Quarter Saved by Exports

(Bloomberg) -- Norway’s economy kept momentum in the first quarter, helped by a rise in exports as consumer spending stalled.

Mainland economic growth, which excludes oil and shipping, expanded 0.6 percent in first quarter, beating the 0.5 percent estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 14 economists. The central bank had forecast growth of 0.7 percent. Fourth quarter growth was revised higher to 0.7 percent.

Surging oil prices is adding to optimism in Norway, western Europe’s biggest crude producer. The economy is now in full recovery mode after enduring the worst oil crisis in a generation. The central bank has flagged it will start tightening after the summer, even as inflation remains far below its 2 percent target.

But consumer spending stalled in the quarter, while public spending increased 0.6 percent, according to Statistics Norway. Exports rose 0.4 percent, but investment fell 5.1 percent. The oil industry and shipping output rose 1 percent in the period. Employment grew 0.5 percent in the quarter, the same pace as at the end of 2017.

Erik Bruce, a senior economist at Nordea Bank AB in Oslo, said the slowdown in demand is likely temporary as strong employment growth will boost consumption and investment will pick up again. Oil investments are also likely to grow and the weak krone will support exports, he said.

“Today’s figure removed the impression that figures for growth and capacity utilization is on the weak side to Norges Bank and made us more certain about the September hike,” he said.

Norway’s central bank has indicated it will raise interest rates from a record low of 0.5 percent “after the summer.”

The krone climbed 0.2 percent against the euro at 9:07 a.m. in Oslo.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sveinung Sleire in Oslo at ssleire1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jonas Bergman at jbergman@bloomberg.net, Stephen Treloar

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