Dalio Says Odds Are Rising for Trade and Other Types of Wars

(Bloomberg) -- "Recent geopolitical developments have led me to raise my probabilities of trade and other types of wars, such as capital wars, cyber wars (and possibly even shooting wars)," Bridgewater Associates Co-Chairman Ray Dalio wrote on LinkedIn.

Dalio Says Odds Are Rising for Trade and Other Types of Wars
  • "I’m not saying they’re probable," but "it seems to me that the odds have increased"
  • Dalio said he initially "thought trade tensions would subside because the Chinese are very amenable to a trade deal," and "there are lots of ways to make a good deal happen"
  • Since President Trump "raised the stakes by another $100 billion," which led China to promise to retaliate in equal measure, "we have a very public game of chicken going on"
  • "In any case, I’m worried and forced to look harder at the question of where Donald Trump is leading us"
  • Given China’s role in financing U.S. deficits and its bond holdings, "one should consider the possibility that this trade war could also become a capital war," which "will be even uglier than a trade war"
  • NOTE: April 8, Trump’s ‘Art of the Deal’ Tactics Face Ultimate Test With China

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