IMD Raises Monsoon Forecast On Possibility Of Weak El Nino

Monsoon this year may be better than earlier predictions.

The India Meterological Department on Tuesday raised the all-India monsoon forecast to 98 percent of the 50-year average for the June-September period, ruling out the possibility of a strong El Nino. In April, the IMD had predicted rainfall at 96 percent of average.

“Whatever El Nino we will see, will be in the second half and it will be weak,” DS Pai, director of long term forecasts at IMD told BloombergQuint over the phone.

If these predictions are met, this will be the second consecutive year of good monsoons in India, after two years of drought in 2014 and 2015.

The agency defines monsoon as normal when rain is between 96 percent and 104 percent of the long-term or 50-year average.

Central India is expected see 100 percent rainfall. South India will see 99 percent while North East and North West will see 96 percent of the long period average, he added.

Rain in July may be 96 percent of the average while August showers will likely be 99 percent of normal. Predictions for the second half of the season will be released in July, Pai said.

Goa and parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh are expected to witness their first showers of the year by June 7-8, KJ Ramesh, director general of the department had told BloombergQuint in an earlier interview. The southern coast of Kerela received heavy showers last week because of a cyclonic circulation.

The IMD’s forecast compares with a March forecast of 95 percent by private weather forecaster Skymet. In a report on Tuesday, Skymet added that heatwave conditions are likely to subside from most parts of the company except Rajasthan and northern Madhya Pradesh in the next 24 hours.