India Likely To See Below Normal Monsoon This Year: Skymet

India is likely to see a below-normal monsoon in 2017 at 95 percent of the long-period average.

This would be mildly below normal but far better than what was seen in 2014 and 2015, when the country had bad monsoons between 84 and 88 percent of the long-period average, Jatin Singh, founder and Chief Executive Officer at Skymet Weather Services, told BloombergQuint over the phone.

The initial forecast does not give a clear indication of the onset of the monsoon, said Singh, but added that weather patterns suggest a hot month ahead in April, followed by pre-monsoon activity in May.

There is 50 percent chance of normal rainfall, 25 percent chance of below-normal rainfall and a 15 percent chance of a drought, according to data from Skymet’s website. While chances of above-normal rainfall stand at 10 percent, an excessive monsoon has been ruled out completely.

Also Read: India May Face Weak Monsoon Under El Nino Effect, Says Nomura

The weather prediction agency expects the season to begin with 102 percent of the long-period average and fall to 96 percent in the coming months. The forecast has an error margin of plus or minus 5 percent.

Spread over a decade, the first forecasts tends to have a roughly 70 percent strike rate, said Singh. The forecasts would get revised as additional information about El Nino patterns comes to light or if there is a perceptible change in the patterns, he said. In his experience, the second revision tends to be lower, said Singh, but added that a positive IOD (Indian Ocean Diople) could help reduce the extent of deficiency in monsoon rains. The IOD is a change in sea surface temperatures in the western Indian ocean.

India’s agricultural economy is largely dependent on the monsoons, which affects prices. Consumer price inflation rose to 3.65 percent in February from 3.17 percent in the previous month.

The country saw a drought-like situation in 2014 and 2015 with a below-normal monsoon. In 2016, the monsoon was above-normal.

Also Read: El Nino Seen Arriving Too Late to Hurt India's Monsoon Rains