The German Army Doesn't Scare Putin. Now It’s Beefing Up
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Germany’s armed forces are “more or less bare,” the country’s most senior army officer, Alfons Mais, declared last month in reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “The options that we can offer the politicians to support the alliance are extremely limited. We all saw it coming and were not able to get through with our arguments … This does not feel good! I am pissed off!”
Rather than admonish Mais for insubordination, Germany’s government actually agreed with him. Addressing the Bundestag three days later, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a 100 billion-euro ($111 billion) military investment fund and promised that the country would finally meet its NATO obligation to spend 2% of economic output on defense (instead of around 1.5% currently).
It was a stunning about-turn. Modern Germany has for decades used the shame of two cataclysmic world wars to avoid exercising hard power, preferring instead to confine its military to international crisis management or peacekeeping missions such as in Afghanistan.
Germany’s armed forces, the Bundeswehr, have shrunk to a sliver of their size from when the Cold War ended. Compulsory military service was dropped in 2011. The lack of funding was evident: During a NATO military exercise in 2014, a German tank unit used painted broomsticks to simulate machine guns. Allies, including former U.S. President Donald Trump, often criticized Germany’s threadbare military for free-riding.
Now Vladimir Putin’s despicable invasion has made clear the vulnerability of Europe’s eastern flank and fostered a new appreciation in Berlin for a properly kitted out military to protect prosperity and freedom. “We need airplanes that fly, ships that can set out to sea and soldiers who are optimally equipped for their missions,” Scholz told parliament.
Germany isn’t alone among European partners in committing to beef up its armed forces, but its need to catch up is greater — and so is its economic firepower.
The Bundeswehr’s shortcomings won’t be fixed overnight. Although 100 billion euros sounds like a lot of money, warplanes and frigates don’t come cheap. The money merely guarantees that Germany funds previous promises to NATO allies, Bastian Giegerich, director of defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told me. Those commitments include providing three divisions, made up of eight to 10 fully operational brigades, within the next decade. “A course correction was long overdue, and it required something dramatic,” he said.
In Berlin’s rush to appear like it’s doing something, there’s a risk some of these funds are misspent. Defense companies are already out in force lobbying for their wares, with one preparing a 40 billion-euro shopping list for officials to consider.
It’s important that Germany’s efforts complement those of its alliance partners, rather than duplicate them. In the past, European countries have often favored domestic technology, hampering interoperability among allies.
Balancing financial support for joint-European defense projects, while ensuring at least some equipment is received quickly, is another challenge. A worsening spat between Airbus SE and France’s Dassault Aviation SA over leadership of a future European fighter jet project shows the sort of headwinds Germany faces.
In some cases, Germany will need to tap American suppliers. Lockheed Martin Corp.’s F-35 has been chosen to replace the aging Tornado aircraft carrying U.S. nuclear weapons stockpiled in Germany, the defense ministry confirmed on Monday.
The country also needs to get the basics right.
“Too little materiel, too few personnel, too much bureaucracy,” is how the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces, Eva Högl, summed things up last year in a highly critical report. She highlighted how Germany has struggled with procurement of even small items such as cold-weather suits, helmets or rucksacks.
Larger contracts face even bigger bureaucratic hurdles: Orders exceeding 25 million euros require special approval by a parliamentary committee. Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht now plans to sidestep European public procurement rules so military contracts can be awarded faster.
The problem isn’t just that equipment takes too long to deliver or that costs balloon. More than one-fifth of Germany’s core weaponry isn’t combat-ready, and in some important categories, the upgrade and maintenance backlog is much worse. Only 40% of helicopters are currently available for deployment.
There’s a lack, too, of basic ammunition. Because this can be manufactured comparatively quickly, it’s likely to be one of the first gaps Germany addresses. The estimated cost is up to 20 billion euros. Germany’s Rheinmetall AG is set to be a big beneficiary.
Beyond that, the German military’s needs are wide-ranging, from a new heavy transport helicopter to investments in digital communications and cyber defense. After Germans watched Russian bombs rain down misery on Ukraine, strengthening air and missile defense is also likely to be a higher priority. Here, MBDA, a joint venture of Airbus, BAE Systems Plc and Leonardo SpA, is vying to play a role.
Germany should also reconsider the overall size of its armed forces. Reintroducing compulsory military service might be impractical, but stepping up regular recruitment efforts surely isn’t too much to ask. Berlin already promised to increase the Bundeswehr to some 203,000 active military personnel in the coming years, but it is still some way off at around 184,000.
A larger, better equipped German military might give Putin more pause. If not now, then when?
More From Bloomberg Opinion:
- Germany Needs a Bigger, Stronger Army: Andreas Kluth
- Germany Is Europe's Weak Link: Max Hastings
- Why the West Must Continue to Arm Ukraine: Ian Buruma
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Chris Bryant is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies. He previously worked for the Financial Times.
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