(Bloomberg Opinion) -- December in Britain can be bleak. Town centers may be festooned with Christmas lights, but it’s cold and it gets dark before 4pm in most places, earlier in the north of the country. That explains the unwritten rule in British politics that you don’t hold winter elections. Party activists, who are central to U.K. campaigns, don’t relish knocking on doors. Voters are harder to mobilize. The last election that wasn’t in late spring was 1974.
Yet here we go. For the first time since 1923 the U.K. is set for a December general election, thanks to a decision by the opposition Labour Party to bow to Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s relentless demands for a vote, which Parliament has now approved for Dec. 12.
The capitulation of the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, against the better instincts of many of his members of Parliament, puts Johnson exactly where he wants to be: glad-handing voters, waving a freshly agreed Brexit deal and telling tales of an obstreperous parliament. That’s a potent combination.
For the remain-leaning parties, however, this is their last stand. Divided between those who want a softer Brexit and those who want to cancel it altogether — and often paralyzed by a Labour Party that tries to have it both ways — they have repeatedly squandered opportunities to unite around an alternative vision. The 2019 general election would be a double-or-nothing bet that voters may be exhausted by Brexit, but they aren’t sufficiently trustful of Johnson to give him control.
The alternatives for Johnson’s opponents were no better. Labour refused Johnson an election three times, but a decision by the remain-supporting Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party to back an early election left Corbyn looking isolated, and a bit silly. Having claimed constantly that he wanted a general election, he was facing the unhappy prospect of having to compete in one despite voting against it. He finally caved on Tuesday and said he would help Johnson’s election bill pass.
The Lib Dems and the SNP decided last weekend to back a December vote as long as Johnson did not bring his Withdrawal Agreement Bill, the legislation implementing his Brexit deal, back to Parliament. Both parties have a keen interest in going straight to a national vote now.
Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, has positioned her organization as the “Stop Brexit” party and campaigned for a second referendum. She said there was no chance of getting an amendment on a confirmatory plebiscite attached to Johnson’s bill since the numbers weren’t there in Parliament, and she worried that his legislation might make it through unencumbered. Far better to go for an election and fight it out in what will be a proxy referendum on EU membership.
The SNP wants to capitalize on the collapse of the Tory vote in Scotland after the resignation of the party’s popular leader there Ruth Davidson. The SNP is also keen to avoid the fallout early next year from the trial of its former leader Alex Salmond on charges of attempted rape and sexual assault.
Whatever their individual interests, Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP will probably only beat Johnson — and Brexit — if they find a way to work together. Unless there’s a major upset, Corbyn is too unpopular and his party’s hard-left economic offering too radical to win a majority. The best he can hope for might be to lead some kind of coalition, perhaps with the SNP. Swinson has ruled out any deal with Labour; her party was burned badly in a previous coalition with the Tories.
Apart from those who will miss the entertainment of the House of Commons Speaker John Bercow bellowing “Orrrder!” there are few who would rue the termination of a parliament that united to stop a no-deal Brexit but couldn’t do much else.
Yet even if Parliament has been abysmal, its dissolution would be a failure too. Johnson came back to the Commons with a Brexit deal and then did everything possible to avoid the scrutiny that it needed. Had he allowed reasonable time for debate, it would have had the examination it deserved.
Johnson’s capitulation on accepting an effective customs border in the Irish Sea, which infuriated his erstwhile allies in the Democratic Unionist Party, might have looked even uglier on closer inspection. The bill might not have survived without amendment. It might even have failed, leading to an election anyhow. But that would have been a process to which the public was entitled and which would have held lawmakers accountable.
Brexiters have claimed repeatedly that this parliament is illegitimate because it’s composed of a larger proportion of Remain-voting lawmakers than is the case for the general public. That accusation was always unfair and dangerous. Nearly all MPs were elected on manifesto pledges to uphold the 2016 vote (even if some never seemed particularly committed), and the poisoned rhetoric will probably haunt future parliaments and undermine trust in public institutions.
But a winter election is coming and so far it doesn’t look a fair fight. Johnson has, Nigel Farage permitting, largely united the Brexit vote and has a clear message for voters. The same cannot be said for his opponents.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at jboxell@bloomberg.net
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Therese Raphael writes editorials on European politics and economics for Bloomberg Opinion. She was editorial page editor of the Wall Street Journal Europe.
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