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Boris Johnson Love Bombs the Other Union

Boris Johnson Love Bombs the Other Union

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- One of the first things Boris Johnson did as prime minister was to give himself a new title: Minister of the Union. That’s a laugh, say many Scots. They suspect the move is aimed at appeasing traditionalists in what is still, officially at least, the Conservative and Unionist Party.

Brexit has big constitutional implications beyond the parliamentary wrangles to come over leaving the European Union: It could lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom. An opinion poll published this week showed Scots are, for the first time in two years, in favor of independence from England.

Johnson’s new title has all the practical effect of the Soviet constitution’s pledge to respect human rights. If he wants to hold the union together, he will need to compensate Scotland and Northern Ireland for the financial losses both will suffer after Brexit and increase their autonomy within the U.K. But it’s far from clear Johnson’s supporters would support such a move; even if they did, it might not be enough.

Unlike Wales, which voted to leave, both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. They are being dragged out against their will – and to their cost. The authorities in Edinburgh say a no-deal Brexit – something Johnson is threatening by Oct. 31 if the EU doesn’t cave to his demands – would cost Scotland 100,000 jobs and see the country’s gross national product shrink by 7%. The U.K. government has estimated that the Scottish and Welsh economies could shrink by 8% under a no-deal Brexit, with Northern Ireland suffering an even bigger hit.

Forcing these nations to stay with the union will not be straightforward, however much lip service Johnson pays to the “awesome foursome.” In the U.S., states’ rights are embedded in the constitution and, for most Americans, secession is akin to amputation. But in England, the prospect of Scottish independence doesn’t rile voters in the same way. Many would even look upon it as shedding excess baggage.

Leave voters have told pollsters they would rather lose a couple of smaller appendages than see Brexit called off. Conservative voters are even more adamant: 73% have said that losing Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be a price worth paying for Brexit. Nigel Farage, whose Brexit Party many Conservatives regard as their biggest electoral threat, has said that a breakup of the union would be “deeply regrettable” – but a price worth paying.

Tories have long complained about tax transfers to Scotland and the so-called West Lothian question – the fact that Scottish lawmakers sit in parliament in Westminster and have a say over laws that impact on England while their counterparts south of the border don’t have the same say over powers devolved to Scotland.

While Conservatives are scathing about the EU’s unwillingness to make further concessions on Brexit, they showed no inclination to be generous to the Scots if they voted for independence in the 2014 referendum. The feeling is mutual. Some 70% of Scots have a negative opinion of the new prime minister. The change in leadership no doubt explains polling this week by Lord Ashcroft that showed Scots favoring independence by 52% to 48% (if you leave out undecided voters or those who say they won’t vote).

That doesn’t mean the Scots will be rushing for the door anytime soon. The government in Westminster would first have to agree that a referendum could be held; and that’s no certainty. It took a couple of years of agitating and threats of unilateral action before David Cameron agreed to hold the 2014 referendum. Johnson will be even more reluctant, all the more so after Labour Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell pledged on Tuesday that his party would not frustrate the will of the Scottish people.

In reality, Brexit cuts both ways in Scotland. Devolution – the process of giving more powers to local assemblies in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – hasn’t produced the great policy innovations many hoped, but it has increased local autonomy. Edinburgh has tax-raising powers and wide-ranging powers over spending. Scottish universities are free, the education system separate, and immigrants more welcome. But full independence is a different matter. For one thing, it is awkward, to say the least, for the SNP to campaign for Scottish sovereignty and a break from the union with England while at the same time opposing the U.K.’s effort to reclaim its own sovereignty by leaving the EU.

Many of the thorny questions that were raised in the last independence referendum – like how to secure Scotland’s future defence needs or its credit rating post-independence – have faded from memory; a new referendum would revive discussions about the costs and complications of separation. Scotland’s large fiscal deficit (about 8%) may be notional so long as it is part of the U.K. But in an independent country, the left-wing SNP’s big-spending ways will be a problem. 

In recent years, Scottish independence has been predicated on the country being a member of the EU. But if it had to rejoin the bloc after Brexit, Spain might have reservations about setting precedent that might be seized upon in secessionist Catalonia. There is also disagreement over whether and when Scotland would have to join the euro, a move that some Scots might find uncomfortable. If Scotland did re-join the EU, the bigger question, obvious to anyone who has followed the saga over the Irish border, would be over the fate of the 96-mile border with England.

It makes little sense for the Scots to commit to anything, though, until it is clear what kind of future relationship the U.K. and the EU will have after Brexit; that won’t be apparent for a while, especially if there is a no-deal crash-out.

As for Johnson, he could try to stave off another vote on independence by offering the devolved authorities more autonomy, taking the Channel Islands or Isle of Man, or even Greenland (an autonomous territory of Denmark that left the EU in 1985) as a model of sorts. But those are stop-gaps. The clamor for Scottish independence – and the possibility of a vote in Northern Ireland to reunite with Ireland – will only grow in proportion to the disruption that Brexit brings. No fancy title can change that fact.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Therese Raphael writes editorials on European politics and economics for Bloomberg Opinion. She was editorial page editor of the Wall Street Journal Europe.

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