Two States Down, and the Democratic Race Is Wide Open

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Two states down, and we are still far away from knowing who the Democratic nominee for president is going to be.

It appears that the five plausible nominees from back in December are all still alive, and it’s possible that a sixth, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, has a chance to join them. (Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News.) It may be that Iowa and New Hampshire have succeeded only in knocking out the fringe candidates. 

The New Hampshire results, with Bernie Sanders narrowly edging Pete Buttigieg and with a strong third-place finish by Amy Klobuchar, hardly resolved anything. Indeed, New Hampshire rescued Klobuchar from dropping out. With about 20% of the vote, she thumped Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden. 

Yes, that does mean that Sanders and Buttigieg were the top two in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and both will now have plenty of resources to fully contest the next two states, Nevada (Feb. 22) and South Carolina (Feb. 29). But there’s no guarantee they can expand their coalitions enough to actually win.

Klobuchar? She’ll also find fundraising a lot easier for a while at least, but she has the most work to do, both in terms of public opinion — she started Tuesday at around 4% in national polls — and campaign infrastructure. 

The most important thing to know about the Democratic contest right now is that most voters, including those in Nevada and South Carolina, are just tuning in. Many of them were waiting for the field to narrow, and it’s now done so to a large extent. I just wouldn’t put a huge amount of confidence in what they were telling pollsters back before they had thought about any of it. 

What seems clear now is that a lot of Democratic voters who were saying for months that they would vote for Joe Biden were in fact only loosely attached to the former vice president. What also seems to be the case is that Sanders is not really poised to stampede the field.

I’m not going to suggest the Vermont senator has a low ceiling. Most Democrats say they like him. But to barely beat two little-known candidates in the state next door, winning just a bit better than 25% of the vote, is hardly an overwhelming showing. Meanwhile, both Buttigieg and Klobuchar could still be flukes who will disappear after an initial “discovery” phase — or one of them could wind up consolidating the entire non-Bernie vote. Or something in between. 

The most important immediate question is whether Biden and Warren can continue. Even if they have the campaign funds to keep going, they also have to keep the loyalty of party actors who have supported them and overcome pressure from other party actors who want to resolve the nomination quickly. If they are able to keep going, it’s possible that one or both can recover. There are a few examples of comebacks that are roughly of that magnitude, but not many. 

It’s theoretically good for Biden that the Democrats are now moving to states with far more ethnic diversity than in Iowa and New Hampshire, including the very urban Nevada. Each of the other candidates has potential serious challenges with black and Latino voters. But that factor, too, is uncertain to help Biden after his weak performance in the first two contests.

Over the next few days, I’ll be watching the national polls and surveys from Nevada and South Carolina. I’ll also be watching whether Klobuchar gets the wave of endorsements that Buttigieg and Sanders didn’t really receive after their Iowa success — or whether one of them gets those endorsements now, after a second strong showing (see here for why endorsements can be good indicators of what’s happening). 

So if there are good reasons to believe that any of the five could still win, there are also good reasons to be skeptical of each of their chances. I’d like to be able to close after the first primary and second contest by saying something more definitive, but the truth is the leader for the Democratic nomination is still Undecided. 

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Katy Roberts at kroberts29@bloomberg.net

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics and policy. He taught political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio and DePauw University and wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.

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