A Loss of Prosecutors Isn’t Necessarily a Win for Trump

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Every investigation of Donald Trump, during and after his presidency, has been freighted with emotion and politics, from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe and two impeachments to ongoing civil and criminal actions in multiple jurisdictions.

When the probes reach a dead end — or, as in the Manhattan district attorney’s current criminal case, appear to unspool — they’re greeted with agita from both the former president’s critics and supporters.

So, amid the sighing or cheering, it may be best to cast a colder eye on where Trump actually stands when one of the many investigations surrounding him seems to peter out.

Yes, two leaders of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s investigation, Mark Pomerantz and Carey Dunne, have resigned, as the New York Times first reported. They may be departing because Bragg, who took office last month, is said to have little interest in the case — unlike his predecessor, Cyrus Vance Jr., who believed he had amassed enough evidence to indict and convict Trump for financial fraud. The Washington Post also reported that Bragg has provided little guidance to a team of 25 lawyers assigned to the case. He “took weeks to read memos Dunne and Pomerantz had prepared,” the Post reported, and “when they did meet, he didn’t seem keenly interested.”

A charitable interpretation of all of that is that Bragg, unlike Vance, may have decided that his office couldn’t meet the difficult challenge of proving in a courtroom that Trump knew he was committing financial crimes. A less forgiving analysis is that Bragg, like Mueller, lacks the gumption to see a difficult but pivotal investigation to its logical conclusion.

Trump is broadly despised in New York, and locals hoping prosecutors would put him in an orange jumpsuit and complicate his political prospects now have to find other things to latch onto.

Trump, for his part, appears to be gifted with nine legal lives. He has spent many of his nearly 76 years successfully pushing the limits of the law, and he has skirted huge financial losses and shenanigans without ever seeing the inside of a prison cell.

But that was then. This is now. Even if Bragg’s investigation evaporates, Trump remains mired in a dizzying array of legal problems that he hasn’t encountered before.

New York State Attorney General Letitia James is plowing ahead on a civil probe of Trump, his three eldest children and their company, the Trump Organization, that could cripple their business. Elsewhere in New York, Westchester County District Attorney Mimi Rocah is examining possible financial crimes at a Trump golf course.

In Georgia, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is overseeing a criminal investigation of Trump’s efforts to sabotage election results there after he lost the 2020 presidential race. That case features a recording of Trump trying to strongarm a local official into ginning up votes for him that didn’t exist.

A bipartisan group of federal legislators in Washington has been taking testimony and assembling evidence involving the Jan. 6 insurrection last year at the Capitol. Trump and a close group of advisers spent months fanning the flames before the siege. Trump could be found liable for inciting the violence that day — as a federal judge indicated in a ruling last week allowing three lawsuits to proceed that seek to hold Trump responsible for the riot.

Attorney General Merrick Garland has remained on the sidelines thus far as Congress, the courts and prosecutors go about their business: upholding the rule of law. But he already has evidence of crimes and admissions he can work with should he choose to enter the legal fray. Barbara McQuade, a former federal prosecutor and a professor at the University of Michigan Law School, recently offered this handy outline of what a Justice Department prosecution memo charging Trump with election crimes might look like.

If Bragg’s investigation does not proceed, Trump will not face the same consequences for financial grifting he might have. But an overdue comeuppance for all of that certainly seems less important than holding him accountable for his repeated assaults on America’s democracy and its Constitution.

Anyone despondent about the resignations of Bragg’s prosecutors should remember that this is not the only pending case against the former president, and maybe not even the most consequential. Trump and anyone else gloating about the splinters inside Bragg’s office should remember the same thing.

Related at Bloomberg Opinion:

• Trump Shouldn’t Be Immune From Prosecution: Jonathan Bernstein
• Trump Criminal Probe Could Backfire on Prosecutors: Noah Feldman
• Does the Trump Family’s Grift Add Up to Fraud?: Timothy L. O’Brien

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Timothy L. O'Brien is a senior columnist for Bloomberg Opinion.

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