Libya’s Civil War Has Turned a Corner, But It’s Far From Over

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- It’s been a long time since the news from Libya warranted optimism, but the beleaguered Government of National Accord in Tripoli finally has grounds for cheer — for now, anyway. Its nemesis, the rebel commander Khalifa Haftar, no longer stalks the periphery of the capital: His Libyan National Army has been retreating for weeks.

Haftar’s bid to take all of northwestern Libya by force of arms has ended, and his allies are calling for a cease-fire. The GNA and its backers have brushed aside offers of parley and are advancing toward the “oil crescent,” a string of northeastern ports vital to the country’s hydrocarbon exports.

In addition to relief, joy and the anticipation of triumph, Tripolitans will also derive some schadenfreude from the news that Western mercenaries and arms dealers bilked Haftar out of more than $50 million.

But Libya’s civil war, pitting east against west, is nowhere near done. Although most of the foreign powers involved have called for a negotiated peace, they can’t necessarily bring the principal belligerents to the table. The GNA and LNA still have military objectives to attain, and points to prove.

U.S. President Donald Trump injected himself into the conversation on Libya this week, speaking with the leaders of Turkey and Egypt, the main backers of the GNA and Haftar, respectively. But Trump is unlikely to get involved in a foreign war, even in a diplomatic effort, in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election. With no troops on the ground, neither Washington nor Brussels can wield real leverage over Libya’s antagonists, and they have only limited influence over their sponsors.

One reminder of the war’s unfinished business came this week, when gunmen shut down two of the county’s biggest oil fields, which had only recently been brought back online. A natural-gas pipeline to Italy was also briefly closed down. Libya’s energy industry has been mostly moribund since January, when Haftar blocked exports and halted most production. Even allowing for the plunge in oil prices, Haftar’s blockade has cost the NOC billions of dollars.

The civil war’s focus has now shifted to the port of Sirte, the gateway to the oil crescent. (It is also the city of Muammar Gaddafi’s birth and death.) The LNA seems to be digging in for a long fight, conjuring up memories of 2011’s bloody, street-by-street battle for another port, Misrata.

It is not clear whether Haftar will be able to call up some of his best fighters: Russian mercenaries and Syrian militias who relocated inland from the outskirts of Tripoli last month. Even more important will be the Russian military jets that have recently been made available to him. The GNA has its own contingent of Syrian mercenaries, in addition to Turkish troops and arms.

The rebel commander’s closest allies, Egypt, Russia and the United Arab Emirates, seem keen on some kind of negotiated settlement that would effectively partition Libya. In his conversation with Trump, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi extracted American support for a cessation of hostilities. (Trump had earlier encouraged Haftar’s assault on Tripoli.)

But the GNA’s principal backer, Turkey, smells blood in the water: Ankara has dismissed Cairo’s cease-fire offer as “a call to save Haftar.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants Haftar out — not just from Sirte but from any peace process. For Erdogan, Libya is the one bright spot in an otherwise miserable economic and foreign-policy landscape. After his conversation with Trump, he also claims to have reached “some agreements” over Libya’s future.

Turkey says it wants the U.S. and NATO to take on a more active role, but this may be mostly an attempt to spook Moscow into coming to an understanding with Ankara. President Vladimir Putin also spoke with Erdogan this week, and talked up a cease-fire. Still, there’s no indication the two leaders are cooking up a GNA-LNA compromise, like the one they attempted in January.

Then, it was Haftar who walked away, gambling that he could get better terms at the gates of Tripoli. With the Egyptian cease-fire plan a non-starter, the rebel commander — the besieger turned besieged — might want to achieve a face-saving battlefield victory, or at least to grind down the GNA advance at Sirte, before he agrees to any deal.

In the battle for the oil crescent, optimism could be an early casualty.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Bobby Ghosh is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He writes on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and the wider Islamic world.

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