(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Israel is a country of many generals and military strategists. Their opinions vary on how to proceed in the international effort to revive the Iran nuclear agreement struck under Barack Obama’s presidency — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known by its initials JCPOA. Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal in 2018. Hardliners insist that Israel must oppose the deal and prepare to act unilaterally against Iran’s nuclear program. Others say this is a mistake; Israel can’t afford to take on the international community.
This week I sought the opinion of Major General Isaac Ben Israel, a man who has been at the center of national security for more than four decades. As a young officer, he was a key planner of Israel’s successful attack on Iraq’s nuclear reactor. He later served as chief of air force intelligence and as the commander of Israel’s version of the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (or DARPA), where he oversaw the development of strategic weapons systems.
As a civilian, Ben Israel established Israel’s first National Cyber Bureau and served as advisor to former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He is currently co-chair of Israel’s National Artificial Intelligence Initiative. He is also chairman of Israel’s National Space Agency. He holds advanced degrees in philosophy and physics and is a professor at Tel Aviv University, where he leads two prestigious academic think tanks.
Ben Israel is neither a hawk nor a dove; he is a realist. What follows is a lightly edited transcript of our conversation about what is and is not possible in the complex strategic situation now confronting Israel.
Zev Chafets: Israel is in its post-Trump, post-Netanyahu era. It looks like the nuclear deal being discussed in Vienna is not to the government’s liking. You’ve known Prime Minister Naftali Bennett for a long time. What would you advise him, from a strategic point of view?
Isaac Ben Israel: I actually had a conversation with Bennett shortly after he came to office. I advised him, as I advised his predecessor, to end Israel’s opposition to the American return to the JCPOA.
ZC: The prime minister doesn’t seem to have taken your advice. He’s insisting that Israel will destroy the Iranian bomb project unilaterally if a nuclear deal is concluded on terms Israel feels are unsafe.
IBI: Too late. Ten years ago, maybe that would have been possible. But today, all the technology needed to produce a bomb is already in Iranian hands. The only question is whether Iran will decide to go ahead or not. And that’s just a matter of time.
ZC: The commander of the Israeli Air Force recently said that the air force is the national insurance policy against a nuclear Iran.
IBI: It’s not a matter of a bombing here or there; one or two operations. We can do that. We know a lot about certain facilities, mostly because of previous international inspections. And we have the capability to destroy those.
ZC: Even without U.S.-supplied 30,000-ton bunker busters?
IBI:Yes, we can do it on our own. We have various means. It’s mostly a question of cost effectiveness. But if we destroy a nuclear facility, Iran can rebuild and activate it within a year or two. And, of course, without inspections there are new bases we know less about. The fact is, Israel can no longer destroy the Iranian nuclear project.
ZC: What’s the alternative?
IBI: Netanyahu’s efforts to persuade the Trump administration to quit the nuclear agreement have turned out to be the worst strategic mistake in Israel’s history. We need to end the negativity and encourage the U.S. to conclude a deal that focuses on the main thing.
ZC: Which is?
IBI: Blocking the imminent Iranian acquisition of a bomb.
ZC: Many experts think any deal should include dealing with Iranian-backed terror.
IBI: It is mistake to complicate things. We can deal with terrorism on our own. Gaza isn’t a strategic threat. The only reason we don’t defeat Hamas and Islamic Jihad is that we don’t want to govern another one or two million Palestinians.
ZC: Hezbollah in Lebanon has an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles.
IBI: We can easily enter south Lebanon, remove the rockets and missiles from range and then come home. We’ve done it before.
ZC: Hezbollah could move to northern Lebanon and continue firing.
IBI: Hezbollah has less than a thousand rockets with a range longer than 45 to 50 kilometres (28 to 31 miles). That’s a manageable number for us.
ZC: If Iran has a bomb, attacking its proxies could be a whole new challenge.
IBI: If and when that happens, everything changes. Israel will have to drop its Begin Doctrine, which pledges to prevent regional enemies from getting nuclear weapons. We will need a new national security doctrine, deterrence, based on a nuclear balance of power.
ZC: Mutually Assured Destruction, as the U.S. and the Soviet Union maintained during the Cold War?
IBI: That’s right. It requires ending the policy of nuclear ambiguity and making our capabilities and our intentions completely transparent to the enemy. The structure and mission of our forces will have to change. And so, will domestic priorities.
ZC: Such as?
IBI: One example: Israel doesn’t have nuclear shelters. Building them will cost untold billions. Another example is immigration, which is a national raison d’etre.
ZC: It sounds dire.
IBI: Previous Israeli governments under Netanyahu have not thought clearly about the limitations of Israel’s influence. Now is the time for realistic thinking. That means cooperating with the United States. After all, we and the Americans have a shared national interest in preventing Iran from becoming a threat to the region and beyond.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Zev Chafets is a journalist and author of 14 books. He was a senior aide to Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and the founding managing editor of the Jerusalem Report Magazine.
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