(Bloomberg Opinion) -- When I first moved to New York City in the summer of 2005, I was obsessed with the subway as a living part of a vibrant city. All these people sweating on each other, crammed buttock to buttock and yet treating each other with decency and dignity, were following rules and norms that I was eager to learn. That is gone now -- and with it, I’m afraid, a big part of what I love about this place.
It’s hard to see how the subway can be made safe anytime soon. Consider the newly instated 1-to-5 a.m. disinfecting. Cleaning poles, seats and other surfaces makes little sense. Last time I rode the subway two months ago, nobody was touching them. And in any case, the questionable benefit will last only until the next passenger walks in and coughs all over everything. The problem is people in close proximity, and a total lack of air circulation that makes breathing unsafe without an N95 mask.
Hence, for the foreseeable future, the only people riding the subway will be those who have no choice: medical personnel; other “essential” workers who can’t afford to stay home; homeless people who are afraid of shelters too dense to practice social distancing. The rest are right to worry, given the available evidence on deaths among people who spend time or work in the subway.
Lysol won’t solve this systemic problem. Subway ridership is down 93% and likely to stay there. The fall in revenue, in turn, will undermine efforts to fix the system’s many problems, and could lead to an even worse state of disrepair. This will repel people who have historically taken the subway to and from work, the opera, museums, baseball games, bars and restaurants – stunting future revenues and the broader recovery. A negative feedback loop.
I fear that people who can afford to move out will do so. They’ve figured out how to work remotely, so why not Montana? Housing prices will plummet in places that rely on well-off commuters (perhaps good news for people who stay). That will leave a combination of professionals who live within walking distance of work (such as professors and students), those who can’t move (retirees), those who can drive, and those who continue life on subways and buses. Everyone else, the top half, will disappear. Traffic will be ridiculous. More people will bike.
I’m not saying it’s forever. The pandemic will eventually end, and New York has rebounded from some terrible cataclysms. Until that happens, though, I’ll miss the city I knew.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Cathy O’Neil is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. She is a mathematician who has worked as a professor, hedge-fund analyst and data scientist. She founded ORCAA, an algorithmic auditing company, and is the author of “Weapons of Math Destruction.”
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