How Ukrainians And Russians Experience the War

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth week, Europe is dealing with a huge inflow of refugees. How are they being received? How are Ukrainians and Russians experiencing the war?

These questions were addressed in a Twitter Spaces discussion hosted by Bloomberg Opinion’s Bobby Ghosh, featuring columnists Andreas Kluth and Leonid Bershidsky. Following is an edited transcript of their conversation.

Ghosh: As of Sunday, March 13, nearly three million refugees had fled Ukraine. More than half of those had arrived in Poland. The expectation is that the number will climb in a a matter of days to four million.

This is the biggest refugee crisis that Europe has faced in many years. How is it coping? What are refugees encountering when they cross the borders — what is the reception waiting for them?

Kluth: The reception at the moment is incredibly warm, and Europe is coping surprisingly well. I covered the 2015-16 refugee crisis, and the atmosphere now reminds me of the early days of that event. But thereafter, there was a populous backlash, which I don't think will happen here. Back then, Europe was divided on whether or not to receive refugees. This time, the European Union is pulling together to help.

Bureaucratic obstacles are being removed for the refugees. They travel free on trains, go wherever they want, and don't have to apply for asylum. And we are reminded that the European Union, which is so fractured normally, that its members have more in common that what divides them. And one thing we have in common is the desire to give the refugees a warm welcome, to respect their dignity, to help in any way we can. I find that quite uplifting.

Ghosh: Is word of this getting to people in Ukraine?

Bershidsky: It is obvious that Ukrainians are aware of the warm reception for refugees, otherwise they wouldn't be fleeing in the direction of these countries, like Poland, Romania and Moldova.

These are familiar countries to the Ukrainians, many of them have been here before because Ukrainians have visa-free travel. Social media networks are full of accounts of how and where people traveled, and how they were received.

By the way, that’s one reason the reception has been so well-organized: Because of these social media accounts, reception centers here in Berlin, for instance, know exactly what the refugees need. So you see people donating exactly the kinds of food that are needed and fewer donors are being turned away because they brought something that is not in short-supply.

I’ve been to the bus station where many refugees arrive, near where I live in Berlin. Some of them are disoriented, but a lot of them know their way around. This makes it easier for the Europeans to receive them than it was to receive the Syrian refugees back in 2015. These are people of the same culture, and the same color, which contributes to, to the warmth of the reception.

Kluth: I’m glad Leonid brought this up, because we shouldn’t be too coy about it. The people who came last time were mostly Syrians and Afghans. There were some women and children, of course, but the refugees were mostly young men, or darker skin — and  they were Muslim.

We know what happened next, starting in Poland and Hungary, where rightwing populists seized on these differences to basically shut their doors. Other countries in Eastern Europe followed them, to one extent or another. Even in countries like Germany and Sweden, rightwing parties played up on the fact that these were dark-skinned Muslim men, to play on people's resentments.

Countries like Poland and Hungary, which are now on front line with Ukraine, played an entirely negative role. They sabotaged subsequent efforts to reform the very dysfunctional refugee system of the European Union.

But they've chosen to disregard all this to deal with this crisis. I have not seen any backlash against these new arrivals. And it's because, as Leonid said, they are so familiar. This makes it easier to empathize with them, at least for the time being. I don't know if it’ll last forever.

Ghosh: Let’s talk a little about the information war. In the U.S. over the past couple of days, much of the discussion around Ukraine has been over conspiracy theories, such as the Russian claim that the U.S. and its allies are planning to use bio weapons against Russia, by mobilizing birds! Are you hearing these same kinds of conspiracy theories in Europe?

Kluth: Of course. It doesn't matter whether you’re in Germany or in Denmark, we’re all in the same information space, in the same information war that is running in parallel to the war on the ground.

I've been very impressed by the strategy of the U.S. and U.K. to tell the world what their intelligence agencies are finding out — where, for instance, Putin was massing troops, when he might attack, and so forth.

This made it hard for, for Putin to spin his own yarns. We were even warned to expect false flag operations, where Russia would stage an attack by “Ukrainians,” as an excuse to invade.

Now, Russia is spreading lies that Ukraine, or Americans in Ukraine, are working on biological or chemical weapons. And again I'm thankful for the intelligence services for making this public, because it suggests there was preparation underway in Moscow for the next step in the information war warfare, possibly leading up to a real chemical attack.

Ghosh: One of the great unknowables in this information war is how ordinary Russians are experiencing it. Putin has complete mastery over the lines of communication to his own people through his propaganda machine. There is little by way of independent media, and foreign publications are not accessible to most Russians.

But it has now been three weeks, and you’d think it would be hard for any regime to keep telling its people that all is going well on the Western front. Is there any sign that ordinary Russians are beginning to question the narrative?

Bershidsky: The issue is that it’s the usual suspects who are questioning the narrative — the people who have always questioned the narrative. Even with all non-state media having basically been closed down, the they're still finding ways to get information, via the social media networks and using VPNs to bypass the government blocks on international websites.

But this is a relatively small proportion of Russians.

The Putin propaganda machine, which runs mainly via television, reaches most people, especially those from the older generation. Russians who live outside the country are trying to tell their parents about what's going on in Ukraine, but when if they show them the videos of dead civilians and bombed out residential areas, what they hear back is, “This is all fake, Ukraine is run by Nazis.”

People who watch TV in Russia, who don't have direct access to independent news sources, are trying to rationalize this war, to find an acceptable explanation for why Russians are killing Ukrainians, who are a very closely related people.

The propaganda is clearly working, at least for the older part of the Russian population, which is Putin's traditional base. I've seen official polls staying 70% support the war. I’ve seen transcripts of focus groups where lot of the respondents believe the official narrative.

Everybody wants the war to end, because it's causing enormous economic hardship. Russian soldiers are dying and the bodies are coming home. But a lot of these focus group respondents believe that it must end with a Russian military victory.

Ghosh: The other big talking point in the West over the past few days has been about foreign fighters. There are reports Russia is recruiting Syrian mercenaries. We’re also hearing of foreigners volunteering to fight on the Ukrainian side.

Bershidsky: I've seen some social media accounts of how these foreign fighters are faring. The Ukraine International Legion takes people with combat experience, so many of the volunteers are people who’ve served in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. They're finding this war vastly different. They’re not up against Afghan rebels or Iraqi militias, they’re fighting the Russian military, which uses heavy artillery and aircraft. Some volunteer appear to have been decimated, some people have gone back home.

But the ones who stay, well, Ukraine can use every soldier it can get and is immensely grateful to the foreigners who fight for it.

On the Russian side, the mercenaries they're getting from Syria are almost a necessity for Putin, because the morale among Russian soldiers is definitely low. Russian troops are giving up and handing over their equipment to the Ukrainians at a pretty high rate. Many can't bring themselves to fight against Ukrainians..

So you bring in people from the Middle East who don't really care about the blood ties between the Russian and Ukrainian peoples. Especially if you want to engage in urban combat, you need to bring people who are not hampered by such considerations. That’s also why they've brought in a considerable force from Chechnya.

More From Writers at Bloomberg Opinion:

• Will Russians Choose Truth or Lies? Ukraine’s Fate Depends on Them: Andreas Kluth
• Don’t Cry for Russia’s Independent Media: Leonid Bershidsky
• Russia’s Halt to Nuclear Talks Leaves Iran in the Cold: Bobby Ghosh

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Bobby Ghosh is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering foreign affairs. A former editor in chief of the Hindustan Times, he was managing editor of Quartz and Time magazine’s international editor.

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