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How the West Can Prevent a War in Ukraine

How the West Can Prevent a War in Ukraine

Russia’s deployment of tens of thousands of troops to its western border has stirred fears of a potential invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. and Europe should act to prevent this aggression by giving Ukraine the means to defend itself — and making clear to President Vladimir Putin the punishment Russia faces if he decides to start a war.

Putin’s desire to impose greater control over Ukraine, a country of more than 40 million, isn’t new. He annexed Crimea in 2014 and then backed armed separatists in eastern Ukraine, where a conflict has simmered since. Last April, Russia massed some 100,000 troops on the border but eventually withdrew in time for Putin’s first summit with U.S. President Joe Biden. Putin has lately resumed warnings over what Moscow sees as NATO’s creeping expansion. In July, he wrote a lengthy essay that expounded on the “historical unity” of Russians and Ukrainians, underlining the threat of the country being used as a “springboard” to pressure Russia.

Whether Putin intends to go beyond saber-rattling and actually launch an attack is uncertain, but there’s reason to prepare for the worst. Increased defense spending and reforms have improved Russia’s military capability. Putin, concerned with the end of his term in 2024, tends to see geopolitics as a means of boosting his standing at home. With Biden focused on the pandemic and containing China, and scant prospect of Western boots on the ground, Putin may feel he has little to lose from embarking on another military adventure.

The West should force him to think again. A unified response by the U.S., its NATO allies and Europe is essential. The first step is to provide immediate help to Ukraine’s military, in the form of anti-ship and anti-tank missiles, intelligence and logistics assistance. Deploying military advisers to Ukraine, as the U.K. has already done, would demonstrate commitment to the country’s sovereignty. As a further deterrent, NATO should increase the number of troops stationed in member states on Russia’s periphery, notably in the Baltic states.

Biden said last week he intends to make it “very, very difficult” for Russia to attack Ukraine. In his scheduled call with Putin on Tuesday, the president should back up his words with action and spell out the consequences of invading a sovereign European state.

At a minimum, the West should prepare to impose sanctions on Russia’s state-owned banks and on the Kremlin elite and their businesses, plus restrict Moscow’s ability to access global debt markets. All of these will rattle, however well-prepared Russia’s fortress economy has become. Cutting Russia out of global financial communications system SWIFT and curtailing Russia’s hydrocarbon exports to Europe — and canceling the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — should follow. The blow would be brutal: When Iranian banks were disconnected from SWIFT in 2012, the country’s oil and natural gas export revenues almost halved

No doubt, such steps will prove contentious. But Biden should impress upon America’s EU allies that preventing war requires presenting a united front. To ease the potential damage to European economies and consumers, the U.S. should stand ready to increase liquefied natural-gas exports and otherwise help the EU diversify energy supplies.

As an incentive for Russia to de-escalate, the Biden administration and Europe should offer to increase diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine and reiterate their desire for Ukraine’s neutrality. Further dialogue with Putin over issues of mutual concern should be conditioned on a verifiable pullback from the border.

In the short term, the West may have little ability to change Russian behavior, but it can still alter Putin’s strategic calculus and limit the risk of further aggression. Firm and coordinated action is the best way to prevent a war that could cost thousands of lives and destabilize an entire continent.

Editorials are written by the Bloomberg Opinion editorial board.

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