(Bloomberg Opinion) -- British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ploy to bully the European Union into a more generous Brexit deal by vowing to leave the bloc on Oct. 31 was always a long shot. His lack of a clear majority in the U.K. parliament, key to ratifying any withdrawal agreement, gave Brussels no incentive to shift on its negotiating red lines. Johnson’s no-deal exit threats, instead of sowing panic among EU leaders, have only turned scores of his own MPs against him. Far from telling Brussels to go whistle, he is now being forced to ask for a delay.
Attention is therefore shifting to how EU leaders, especially France’s Emmanuel Macron, would react to a request for an extension -- which would be the third time Brexit has been pushed back since March. Throughout the Brexit mess, Macron has played bad cop to Angela Merkel’s good cop, fighting for as strict an extension as possible to make sure his vision of a more integrated and assertive EU isn’t thwarted by a member state with one foot out the door. With Johnson’s unruly behavior vindicating those warnings, Macron has more reason to say “non” this time.
Indeed, France, which opposed a long Brexit extension back in April, is already sending out tough signals ahead of the Oct. 15 EU Brexit summit. Foreign MinisterJean-Yves Le Drian said over the weekend that the U.K. was caught in an impasse, with a parliament unwilling to ratify a deal yet also unwilling to propose a viable alternative. “As things stand, it’s a ‘No’...We’re not going to do this every three months.” You might dismiss this as just yet more bluster from the French, but Macron is going to get a more receptive hearing from fellow EU leaders this time. Johnson has worn everyone’s patience thin.
But Macron knows how to play Brexit poker, too. The French president is unlikely to suddenly slam the door on the Brits at the very moment Johnson looks to be on the ropes. The two countries share a border, military cooperation and over 50 billion euros ($55.2 billion) of annual bilateral trade. Better to extract concessions while avoiding the appearance of dictating conditions to British voters. A no-deal Brexit might still be a real possibility down the line, but there is nothing to be gained in triggering it. Internal EU rifts with Germany and Ireland would flare up. Macron’s diplomatic pitch as a mediator between the U.S., U.K. and Europe would take a hit. And his own reform drive might be derailed by any unexpected impact.
What concessions might be demanded? The usual menu of options -- an election, a referendum, or another attempt to ratify the deal -- will no doubt apply. But it’s an election that looks most likely, given Johnson and his opponents say they want one. The results of such an election are by no means predictable, as what was once a two-way race is splitting into four, but it would be hard for the EU to dismiss out of hand an option that could rearrange parliament just enough to get a deal through. That’s why Brussels officials are already war-gaming the scenarios of an extension and an election in quick succession. They know that Johnson stands a real chance of winning that majority, by playing the strongman executive held back by the establishment. Some 39% of British voters support a no-deal Brexit, and they might see Johnson as the best way of achieving it.
The paradox facing the EU is that granting an extension makes sense at the moment, but could extract a high long-term cost. An emboldened Johnson, with a true-blue Brexiter majority, would then return to Brussels with a list of even longer demands. His behavior in Westminster, testing the U.K.’s unwritten constitution to its limit, suggests the EU has yet to feel the full force of the Brexit populist playbook. But in the short term, the chance to dodge the bullet of a no-deal scenario while applying maximum pressure looks too good to pass up.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Therese Raphael at traphael4@bloomberg.net
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Brussels. He previously worked at Reuters and Forbes.
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