(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Whatever the results of this week’s European Parliamentary election, it's already clear that the region’s far-right, populists and euroskeptics have been struggling to gain the momentum they crave.
Analysis of the vote is often complicated by imprecise terminology that has little to do with the way the legislature works. It is organized by cross-national political group. The larger the caucus, the bigger its influence on the legislative process. So, parties of every political orientation have to forge alliances based on common ideologies or goals. When it comes to that alignment process, broad terms like “far right,” “nationalist” or “euroskeptic” matter less than specific points of agreement or disagreement.
There are lots of those. Europe's political system is designed to ensure maximum representation. This creates a multitude of political flavors. The German ballot for the upcoming vote is about a meter long. That, in part, is why Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini’s attempt to bring to bring together the region’s nationalist and euroskeptic parties in what he has dubbed the European Alliance of Peoples and Nations looks set to be both a political and organizational failure.
Salvini’s biggest success lies in uniting most of the current parliament’s Europe of Nations and Freedom group with factions from another euroskeptic, populist grouping – Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy. Most notably, Salvini has attracted EFDD’s key member, the Alternative for Germany party, which is projected to win five more seats than in 2014.
But electorally, the united group’s strength largely depends on Salvini’s own popularity in Italy. Elsewhere, the new alliance is expected only to make tiny gains in the Czech Republic, Finland and Estonia. Many of the better-known parties the Italian nationalist managed to attract to his banner in France, Austria and Denmark don’t appear to be on any kind of a roll.
So the most recent Europe Elects data suggest the next parliament will be more diverse than its predecessor – but that forces described as far-right, nationalist or euroskeptic will fail to make big gains.
Even if one lumps together Salvini’s alliance, the European Conservatives and Reformers group, Britain’s Brexit party and Salvini’s Italian Five Star coalition partner, which hasn’t joined any group yet, they are projected to win only 194 seats out of 751. That’s more than the 155 they have in the current parliament, but not so many more as to give them decisive legislative power on those occasions when these diverse parties, divided by contradictory national interests, can agree to make common cause.
And that won’t always happen. The eastern European national conservatives, for example, aren’t interested in disrupting the normal functioning of the EU – the incoming Brexiters’ only goal.
The combined center, drawn from moderates on the left and the right as well as pro-business liberals, looks set to lose as many as 45 seats – roughly the same number as the nationalists and populists are poised to gain. Even if one adds the Greens, which are doing better than in 2014, that loss isn’t going to shrink by much.
Given the dwindling support for moderate parties on both the left and right, the centrist alliance will need to be broader than before. It will need to include the liberal grouping energized by French President Emmanuel Macron's startup party if it is to retain control of the proceedings by holding on to more than 430 seats. That has implications for major EU appointments, especially that of the presidency of the European Commission. It will be hard for the center-right European People’s Party to push through its candidate for the job, Manfred Weber, even though it’s likely to remain the biggest party. Some sort of compromise decision may be necessary.
The European project always has been an uphill struggle, given the continent’s political diversity. This election is not going to provide any reason to doubt its viability. It’s not surprising that about a quarter of the parliament is likely to represent voters focused on national identity. It’s encouraging, though, that the majority are likely to have other priorities.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net
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Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.
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