(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The coronavirus epidemic has forced governments to make difficult choices. One of the hardest — and perhaps most symbolic — is whether to shut down schools to contain the contagion.
Any generalized lockdown would inevitably take a toll on the children and their working parents. The limited evidence we have, however, shows that this measure can be effective in slowing down an outbreak. In turn, this could provide much-needed respite to hospitals, which are coming under severe pressure as the virus continues to spread.
As the number of individuals tested positive to Covid-19 globally approaches 100,000, governments across the world are taking the Draconian step of making kids and teenagers stay at home. Hong Kong, Japan and Italy have shut down all their schools. Other countries — including France, Germany and the U.K. — might end up facing the same dilemma.
The apparent paradox of this decision is that children appear to be the age group that appears least in danger from this virus. A study of more than 44,000 infected people in China found that only one individual younger than 20 died because of Covid-19, out of 965 confirmed cases. (For comparision, the World Health Organization puts the overall mortality rate for this coronavirus at 3.4% worldwide — though another February study put it at 1%.) Governments often consider shutting down schools to protect “vulnerable” children, but for the coronavirus this is not the case.
The fear, however, is that schools are a dangerous vehicle of contagion, as students spend long periods of time jostled together. It’s also harder to ask kids to follow basic hygienic principles — such as washing one’s hands — which are the most effective ways to limit this outbreak’s spread. A study of 391 cases in Shenzen, China, shows that children are as likely as adults to be carrying the virus, even if it’s much less deadly for them. Keeping them at home may make their parents and grandparents safer.
Covid-19 only appeared a few months ago, so we don’t have enough evidence to determine what kinds of social distancing measures work best to stop its spread. However, scientists have looked at the impact of closing down schools on other viruses. The findings are mixed: A review of 79 studies on seasonal and pandemic influenza found that closing down schools may have an impact in delaying a contagion, though it’s hard to be certain. School closures typically occur alongside other measures, so scientists have trouble in pinning down what matters the most.
Yet this measure appears to be helpful when there’s a risk that the health-care system is overwhelmed. This is the biggest threat from Covid-19: Its lethality appears to be much lower than for other viruses such as SARS or MERS. However, it spreads more easily and forces about 10% of infected individuals into intensive-care units, which only have limited capacity. A study on the 2009 swine flu epidemic in the U.K. showed school closures can have a mitigating effect when a pandemic has severe implications for ICU capacity. However, the shutdowns need to be widespread and coordinated, similar to what is happening now in Italy and Japan. “When the predicted peak demand is likely to exceed national capacity, then a coordinated and possibly extended period of school closures may be necessary,” the authors said.
There are, of course, huge costs to protracted and coordinated school closures. Many parents need to stay at home to take care of their children. Some of these parents will be working in hospitals and doctors’ surgeries too, adding to the pressure on the system. A study from 2009 found that closing all schools in the U.S. for four weeks could cost between $10 billion and $47 billion and lead to a reduction of 6% to 19% in key health-care personnel. Of course, there will also be long-term educational costs to children.
The price for society could be lower if schools were better equipped with technology. Unfortunately, in many parts of the world teachers still rely solely on classroom attendance. Epidemics cannot be predicted, so it’s impractical to put in place a completely comprehensive system of distance learning. But it would be helpful if schools had better contingency plans for such occasions.
As the coronavirus epidemic spreads, more governments may choose to close their schools. For all its costs, it’s an option they should consider.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at jboxell@bloomberg.net
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Ferdinando Giugliano writes columns on European economics for Bloomberg Opinion. He is also an economics columnist for La Repubblica and was a member of the editorial board of the Financial Times.
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