(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Italy’s government has congratulated itself for showing the rest of the Western world how to enforce a lockdown in a democratic society. Nearly two months after that draconian decision, politicians are still keeping their citizens in the dark over the thinking behind their actions.
On Sunday, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced that he would lift a number of measures that have restricted liberties and brought the economy near to a halt. As of May 4, the manufacturing and construction sectors will reopen, while people will be allowed to visit relatives, as long as they live in the same region.
Most constraints will remain in place, however. Shops will stay closed for another two weeks, and bars and restaurants will only open their doors in June. Italians will still have to carry a certificate to show the police they have a good reason to go out. They won’t be able to travel between regions, except for specific reasons such as going to work. Schools will stay closed, until September at least.
Yet the ongoing restrictions weren’t the objectionable thing about Conte’s announcement; it was more that he failed to give any sense of what his overall goal really is.
Italy has succeeded in limiting the speed of transmission of Covid-19. The virus reproduction rate — the estimated mean number of people infected by each case — fell to 0.5-0.7 at the start of April, which is below the threshold “1” where growth becomes exponential. The pressure on hospitals has eased too. The number of patients in intensive care has halved since the epidemic’s peak. Conte’s government may not think this is enough to allow for a wider reopening, but it needs to do much better on explaining why and in letting everybody know what kind of infection numbers would allow for an end to the other constraints.
The communication of clear goals is critical to maintaining the public’s trust.
It isn’t even clear why some restrictions have been lifted before others. For example, while most shops have to stay closed, bookshops have reopened. Visitors will be allowed into museums as of May 18, but the government for now won’t permit any religious functions with the exception of funerals. These decisions are making Conte’s administration vulnerable to claims that it’s favoring some sectors over others.
The Italian state is demanding a great deal from its citizens, so it needs to show that it’s handling things competently. Conte failed to outline how he intends to tackle the health crisis in this next phase, including tracing the infected and the people they’ve been in contact with, ramping up testing and reorganizing hospitals to avoid Covid-19 patients spreading the virus. Italy is developing an app to help with this effort, but the prime minister said nothing about it.
Like most leaders globally, Conte remains very popular in the polls. Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League, had hopes of winning the next election, but he’s in a tough spot. His popularity is declining and there are serious questions over how the epidemic has been managed in Lombardy, a League stronghold. But the ruling Five Star-Democrat coalition can’t be complacent. The government’s lack of clarity is testing the patience of the public and prompting trade associations to revolt. Even the Catholic Church has issued a rare rebuke over the failure to reinstate freedom of religious assembly, leading to a government rethink.
In fairness, all countries are struggling to manage the trade-off between reopening the economy and ensuring there’s no big second wave of infections. There’s a solid case for caution: A new series of outbreaks would force countries to close their economies again, compounding the financial damage. And scientists are struggling to give politicians precise answers on the best Covid-19 policies. As the virus is new, the data only get you so far.
However, democratic governments must be transparent, rather than merely imposing rules like dictatorships. A few days ago, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a trained scientist, provided an excellent example of content-rich leadership, as she explained in detail why her government was seeking to keep the virus reproduction rate below one. Conte and other leaders should take a look at her video, and learn from it.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Ferdinando Giugliano writes columns on European economics for Bloomberg Opinion. He is also an economics columnist for La Repubblica and was a member of the editorial board of the Financial Times.
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