Why Boris Johnson's Bluster Hasn't Flustered the EU

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- If Boris Johnson is the diplomatic equivalent of a kid playing with matches, the European Union has barely risen to the level of an exasperated parent. A British threat to backtrack on terms agreed over the status of Northern Ireland, as well as the prime minister’s threat to walk away from trade talks with the 27-country bloc, have mostly received a round of raised eyebrows in Brussels. 

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned Johnson against such a move. Her counterpart at the European Council, Charles Michel, joked that Europe was keeping a “British stiff upper lip.” France’s Emmanuel Macron didn’t mention the issue in a tweet summarizing a phone call with Johnson. Only in the European Parliament was retaliation proposed, with Green member Philippe Lamberts saying there was “no point” in keeping negotiations going if Johnson was serious.

For most everyone else, it was Keep Calm and Carry On. Why is that?

Partly, it’s because the EU thinks it has worked out how to manage the U.K.: Ignore Johnson’s threats as bluff until an eleventh-hour compromise. After all, we have seen this movie before. When Johnson replaced Theresa May last year, he enthusiastically declared his predecessor’s commitments “dead” and threatened to leave the EU without a deal — before agreeing to compromises for a tweaked deal.

It’s also because the post-Brexit transition agreement struck in January, preserving unfettered trade between both sides for a one-year period, has allowed the EU to settle into a comfort zone. At this point in the game, Britain’s departure seems far less of an existential question for the bloc. Its 27 remaining members have taken historic steps toward closer integration, such as the 750 billion-euro ($886 billion) pandemic recovery fund. Nobody expects Johnson to successfully divide and conquer, say, by peeling off Germany or Poland to strike tentative side deals.

This steady state has encouraged the EU’s natural tendency to avoid rocking the boat geopolitically, even when Johnson’s government is enthusiastically swaying it. European diplomats have their hands full with other crises that look more immediate, from the Covid-19 pandemic to the persistent saber-rattling in the Eastern Mediterranean by Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They aren’t devoting similar bandwidth to Brexit, and — for now — are happy to leave space for Johnson’s threats.

This means the pressure is squarely on the shoulders of Michel Barnier’s negotiating team to find a solution to the impasse. And, on paper, these are frustratingly solvable issues. 

European access to U.K. fishing waters is a political, rather than an economically vital question. An equivalence deal on financial services could help both the EU and Britain develop a more balanced cross-border relationship. And a compromise on state aid needn’t be impossible. The EU’s proposal for a new tool to punish unfair government subsidies should give it leverage to strike some kind of compromise with the U.K. — which in turn should realize it’s in its own interest to have some kind of arrangement with its largest and closest trading partner.

While the technocratic impulse is to keep negotiating to the bitter end, and most people believe there will be a deal, comfort zones can get a little too comfortable. The EU is going to have to flex its political muscles eventually. The front pages of the British media and the dreams of close Johnson adviser Dominic Cummings show the strength of feeling in the corridors of Whitehall and public opinion. Even in an optimistic scenario, the EU will have signed a new treaty with a politician whose government has a habit of threatening to break its pledges.

That means preparing for the worst — a no-deal Brexit — while hoping for the best. The EU will no doubt pick the right emergency authorizations to manage such a crisis economically: for planes to land, for financial-market trades to clear, for trucks to carry goods. Those most affected by such an outcome, such as Ireland, would be in line for a wave of financial support.

The biggest risk for Brussels is being saddled with a geopolitical nightmare it has been trying to avoid: Britain becoming another simmering problem on its doorstep. After all, playing with matchsticks can lead to accidental fires.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the European Union and France. He worked previously at Reuters and Forbes.

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