(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Conservative Party members take Boris Johnson at his word when he says he will bring the U.K. out of the European Union on Oct. 31, “do or die.” It’s a promise he would betray at his peril. It also sets up one of the biggest political high-wire acts of all time.
Assuming he is elected leader and replaces Theresa May as prime minister next week, Johnson will have staked everything on one gamble: That he has the leverage to get an acceptable Brexit deal and the means to leave the EU without one if the bloc or parliament won’t oblige. If he fails to deliver, his party faces a crushing electoral defeat.
The strategy rests on several shaky premises. First, that there is a deal to be struck with Brussels. Secondly, that the threat of no-deal will be credible this time. And third, that such an outcome can be sold to the public. Johnson, however, has some weapons his predecessor never had.
The EU has repeatedly said the existing Withdrawal Agreement – which the British parliament has rejected three times – isn’t up for renegotiation. But it is also clear that the EU wants to avoid both a no-deal exit and the blame for it.
The key to reaching any agreement rests on the Irish border. Under the common interpretation of the Good Friday Agreement, both Britain and Ireland are committed to keeping their border free from any customs infrastructure – something that, as things stand, would be impossible if the U.K. left the EU’s customs union. May agreed to a backstop that would keep Britain inside it if alternative customs arrangements couldn’t be found. Johnson doesn’t just want that provision to be changed; he wants it scrapped.
That seems to have concentrated minds in Dublin. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, who has resolutely declared that there is no alternative to the backstop, has noticeably softened his tone in recent weeks. Given the enormous strategic importance of the U.K. not only as a destination for Irish exports but as a route for lorries to reach the rest of the EU, the incentive to avoid a no-deal exit can’t be overstated.
Perhaps there is room for the previously impossible to become possible – but that depends on Johnson’s other two premises proving correct.
Brexiters were right when they noted that May’s no-deal threats lacked sting. The U.K. waited too long to begin its preparations for that eventuality. A BBC documentary that aired Thursday night quoted top EU officials as saying they were never threatened with no deal and never believed it a possibility. Neither did the government: A top Brexit official was quoted as telling ministers that such a threat “was like taking the pin out of a grenade and holding it next to your own head.” Of course, that’s true. Still, if you’re going to threaten something crazy, it helps to have tousled hair and a wild, dare-me-to look in your eyes. Johnson does.
His cabinet is likely to be dominated by Conservatives who share his willingness to take that route. Hardliners in his party want “no deal” to be the base case, though one senses there are divisions within Johnson’s own camp on how far to push it. Still, the EU wouldn’t be able to blindly ignore the threat.
Much depends on the third, and underrated, prong of Johnsons’ strategy: Public opinion. His gamble rests on selling the idea that a no-deal Brexit, if it must happen, wouldn’t be as cataclysmic as everyone assumes.
That is bold indeed. On Thursday, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility estimated that such a result would tip the U.K. economy into a recession, damage house prices and hit stock prices hard – and that was under a fairly benign scenario.
Johnson doesn’t need to be right; he just needs to convince enough people he is right. His hope is that sentiment can create its own economic reality. Support for no deal has grown as voters become more frustrated with the current state of uncertainty. If Dublin and Brussels recognize that and see Johnson doing well in the polls, the credibility of his threats would increase, and so too would the pressure to find a compromise.
Parliament, however, is the wildcard that could thwart Johnson. A vote on Thursday, notionally about Northern Ireland, but in reality about the executive’s ability to suspend parliament, demonstrated there is a blocking minority in the House of Commons that could frustrate a no-deal Brexit: 17 Conservative MPs rebelled.
Despite that vote, it’s not clear just how parliament would go about blocking Johnson if he were determined to pursue that route – especially given the number of Labour MPs whose constituents are also braying for no-deal.
There is a lot that could go wrong here. Johnson isn’t just distrusted by EU leaders; his brand of populist, say-anything politics is regarded as a threat. Many EU leaders hold him largely accountable for the Brexit vote and note his continued propensity for falsely blaming the EU for rules it never wrote – witness his latest claim about packaging smoked kippers.
Nor is Johnson known as a skilled parliamentarian; he may founder in the chamber. Brussels will watch closely for signs that his government could be toppled in a no-confidence vote.
His hard-Brexit supporters may turn down any compromise, making its passage in parliament impossible, though they are unlikely to want to risk a general election. Public opinion may sour on his leadership before it gets off the ground, emboldening the opposition.
The paradox here is clear: The more opposition to no-deal mounts, the less leverage Johnson has in his negotiations – thus increasing the likelihood of that outcome since there is no straightforward way out of his iron-clad pledge.
The best shot at avoiding a no-deal exit might be both parliamentary and public acquiescence to Johnson’s high-risk strategy. For many, though, that will be unconscionable. Johnson’s confidence trick requires people to believe in him; but as a recent YouGov poll showed, many don’t trust him – and that includes Conservatives and Leavers too. Some might calculate that frustrating him will increase the chances of a referendum and a reversal of Brexit altogether, though neither would be automatic.
Whether they like it or not, British voters are very likely about to be booked on the Boris Johnson mystery Brexit tour this summer: Destination uncertain, journey perilous and driver apparently reckless.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Therese Raphael writes editorials on European politics and economics for Bloomberg Opinion. She was editorial page editor of the Wall Street Journal Europe.
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