Bobby Ghosh’s View to 2022: The Death of the Iran Nuclear Deal
(Bloomberg Opinion) --
What to Expect:
The fate of the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and the world powers hangs in balance. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action has been a dead letter since the U.S. withdrew from it during the Trump presidency; and Tehran responded by rapidly ramping up enrichment of uranium — while concealing some of its nuclear activities from the United Nations watchdog body.
With negotiations to revive the JCPOA faltering, it is more than likely 2022 will witness its formal demise. This will leave the Biden administration scrambling to prevent the Islamic Republic from becoming a nuclear threshold state, like Japan and South Korea, with the ability to quickly weaponize its uranium stockpile. It is far from certain the U.S. can count on the full backing of the European signatories to the deal, much less China and Russia.
From the Year Behind Us:
Iran’s New President Will Listen Only To His Mentor’s Voice: Ebrahim Raisi owes his career, and his political legitimacy, to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This all but guarantees that his presidency will be hostile, to Iranians as much as to the West.
Who Will Be the Taliban Whisperer This Time: Pakistan or Qatar?: Islamabad has history with the fighters, having provided them with succor and safe haven. Doha has deeper pockets and has cultivated prominent members of the group. The outcome of this contest for influence in Kabul may determine which way Afghanistan goes from here.
Erdogan’s Dangerous Obsession with Low Rates: Consumers are struggling to afford basic necessities as prices surge, yet the quixotic president gives no indication that he will change course on economic policy.
A Sportswashing Deal Will Air Saudi Arabia’s Dirty Laundry: Rival fans and rights activists will revel in embarrassing Newcastle United’s new owners before a global audience.
Hungry? Here’s Why You Should Be Eating Goat Meat: Apart from being delicious, it’s good for you as well as for the environment. And it looks as if Americans are finally catching on.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Bobby Ghosh is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He writes on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and Africa.
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