(Bloomberg Opinion) -- On the day German Chancellor Angela Merkel turned 65, her chosen successor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, unexpectedly took the job of defense minister. It’s a gutsy move that could advance her ambitions to the chancellorship, or ruin them. The chances of both outcomes are about even.
Merkel, who has suffered three public tremor attacks in recent weeks, insists she is in good enough physical shape to serve out her term, which ends in 2021. Most voters consider a leader’s health a private matter, so she doesn’t feel compelled to explain the medical details. It’s obvious, though, that a long, crisis-filled political career has taken a toll on her, and an early election is a possibility.
Kramp-Karrenbauer hasn’t been a convincing success in her seven months as leader of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union. AKK, as she is known, tried to play to the party’s conservative right, making critical statements about gender politics, immigration and environmental policy. These alienated centrist voters without denting support for the nationalist Alternative for Germany party. As a result, the CDU has been polling well below 30% and roughly the level with the Greens, who are now almost the default choice for centrist voters.
AKK, therefore, needs to take risks to prove she can win elections for the party – and run Germany. The one she is now taking is so great that she hesitated. Just two weeks ago, she said she didn’t want to join the cabinet if then-Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen became president of the European Commission. But after the European Parliament handed von der Leyen the top Brussels job, AKK immediately made it clear to colleagues in the CDU leadership she would be taking up the post.
The dangers are formidable. No German politician has ever made the jump from the defense ministry to the chancellorship directly. AKK’s three predecessors, all of them ambitious, have been plagued by scandal. Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, seen by many as a rising star, had to resign in 2011 after it transpired he had plagiarized his doctoral dissertation. His successor, Thomas de Maiziere, aggressively advocated a surveillance drone program, only to cancel it after the costs threatened to get out of control. His career didn’t end – Merkel moved him to the interior ministry in her next cabinet – but he was no longer on the list of potential chancellors.
Von der Leyen was on that list, too – until her performance at the defense ministry scuppered her chances. While she pushed through big military spending increases, too much money went on high-priced consultants, now the subject of an investigation by a parliamentary commission, and on projects hit by wild cost overruns – like the scandalous renovation of the navy training ship Gorch Fock.
At the same time, not enough funds went toward equipping the Bundeswehr: Much of its hardware still cannot be used in combat, and in March, the defense ministry decided to classify the information on the condition of the country’s major armaments. Von der Leyen, who admitted googling the defense ministry after Merkel unexpectedly offered it to her in 2013, has remained a stranger to the Bundeswehr, a tin-eared and unpopular civilian.
If AKK, who also has no experience in defense, spends the next two years at the ministry, she could easily be besmirched by same kind of costly failures as her predecessor. But there will be no Brussels escape hatch. And speaking for the military isn’t necessarily the best way to win votes – especially centrist ones that go to the Greens now – in relatively pacifist Germany.
The defense job, though, isn’t necessarily a poisoned chalice.
Running the ministry for almost three years didn’t end the political career of one of Germany’s most revered chancellors, Helmut Schmidt (who went on to serve in other top cabinet posts before winning the ultimate prize). AKK only needs to hold out for two years without making serious errors to survive, less if there is an early election.
Her predecessor’s unpopularity should give her an advantage as she starts. AKK is more conservative than von der Leyen, and her less corporate management style should help her win over the troops. And her gutsiness in taking on responsibility for perhaps the toughest portfolio in the cabinet should earn her some points.
It also counts for something that the defense portfolio is the most high-profile one available to the CDU under the current coalition agreement. Merkel could have handed it to Health Minister Jens Spahn, another leadership contender who reportedly coveted it. But Merkel backed AKK – a clear message that she’s confident in her close associate’s ability to handle tough tasks.
In the end, it is all about what AKK makes of the job; if she drops the ball, it will be her own fault, and if she manages to stay in the game, she will be a stronger contender for the chancellorship than she is today. This is the kind of calculated risk a top-flight political leader must take and, after a long life in politics, Merkel knows that better than anybody.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.
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