(Bloomberg Opinion) -- There are good reasons why the idea of installing Angela Merkel in a top European Union job just won’t die. But there are even better reasons why it doesn’t make sense for Germany’s lame-duck chancellor herself.
To many of Europe’s politicians, it seems unfair that Merkel’s distinguished political career should end as the weak leader of a fractious coalition with Germany’s Social Democrats.
In February, former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi published a book in which he proposed that Merkel “continue to serve Europe in another capacity” after her three terms as chancellor. At an EU summit this month, several leaders reportedly pressed her to seek the presidency of the European Council, a job currently held by former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
This would make sense. Merkel has 13 years’ experience of European summits, more than any other current national leader -- all of it in a central role. She worked all-nighters during the European debt crisis, hammered out compromises on the Greek rescue, rallied fellow leaders to impose sanctions on Russia after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, and made sure the EU held the line on Brexit.
She has experience of governing in coalition with allies who disagree with her on key economic and cultural issues. She is, in other words, the ultimate cat herder, the master compromise seeker – and one of the few people alive today who could fill with meaning the relatively new and vaguely defined post of president of the council of EU national leaders. With her meticulousness and deep knowledge of the issues, there would never be an ill-prepared Council meeting, never a final communique on which everyone wouldn’t agree.
Merkel could also perform a function for which Tusk and his predecessor Herman Van Rompuy have been particularly ill-suited: That of the EU’s international spokesperson. Merkel may not be charismatic in a traditional sense, but she is principled and has developed a personal brand powerful enough for commentators to crown her leader of the Free World after Donald Trump was elected U.S. President. Having her speak for Europe rather than for Germany, a country that is justifiably reluctant to flirt with global leadership, could only strengthen the EU’s international role.
If Merkel took the Council job, Germany wouldn’t be able to push its candidates for the other two key EU posts – the presidencies of the European Commission and the European Central Bank. That would be welcome news to French President Emmanuel Macron and to leaders of smaller member states uncomfortable with the idea of Jens Weidmann running the ECB and Manfred Weber the Commission.
Finally, moving Merkel to Brussels would get her out of Germany, resolving a domestic situation that Merkel herself has acknowledged as uncomfortable. Different people now lead the government and the country’s political biggest party. This makes it harder for Merkel’s chosen successor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, to step of her predecessor’s shadow. AKK, as she is known, has to lead the Christian Democratic Union without any formal influence over the levers of government – a position with which she is reportedly unhappy.
Merkel, however, has refused to entertain the European Council option or, indeed, any continuation of her career after the current chancellorship. At a press conference last week, she reiterated her position in no uncertain terms: “I am not available for any further political office, no matter where it is, including in Europe.”
Considering Merkel’s record of never reneging on such unambiguous public statements, a change of mind is highly unlikely. And it makes as much sense for Merkel to reject a move to Brussels as it does for others to propose it.
Leaving all personal considerations and Merkel’s obvious fatigue aside, she knows the Council presidency is a thankless job. She has had a hand in building a Europe that, whatever euroskeptics say, isn’t ruled by an unelected bureaucracy in Brussels but rather by national leaders. Nothing in the EU happens without their consent, and all the recent shows of EU strength, from the Russia sanctions to the firm stand on Brexit, had their roots in a consensus forged by national leaders.
There’s not much a Council president can do to foster it, especially if they don’t enjoy the backing of their home country. The nationalist Polish government, for example, has done its best to undermine Tusk. After running Germany for more than a decade, Merkel is understandably uninterested in what she knows better than anybody else is a lesser job.
Taking the Council job wouldn’t serve Germany’s own national interest either. If it is Berlin’s turn to have more power over the EU’s institutions, the country needs to control one of the two more powerful posts at the Commission or the ECB. By accepting an EU position, Merkel would jeopardize Weidmann and Weber’s chances.
Finally, like all politicians successful on the domestic German stage, Merkel – for all her interest in and knowledge of European affairs – is, deep down, parochial. Germany’s needs and interests are often different from those of the rest of Europe, and Merkel has always derived strength from answering domestic challenges first – something Martin Schulz, the former European Parliament speaker who challenged her for the chancellorship in 2017, never quite grasped.
I, for one, will be sorry to see Merkel exit the political stage. Like many others, I think she would make a great European Council president. But it’s hard to see why she would want to, and, unless some new and compelling reason emerges, the idea looks to be a non-starter.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.
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