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The Last Thing Yemen Needed Was a Second Civil War

The Last Thing Yemen Needed Was a Second Civil War

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Whether Yemen ever really deserved the Roman-era appellation of Arabia Felix is debatable, but few would contest its modern-day claim as the Arab world’s least fortunate nation. Already ravaged by conflict and cholera, the country now faces a new civil war in the south, between separatists and government forces.

This second civil war is taking place within the battle lines of an ongoing internecine struggle between northern rebels and the government. And both of these wars are wrapped inside a larger conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Yemen’s latest misfortune will make harder the herculean task of bringing peace to the ravaged nation. What the United Nations has described as the world’s worst manmade humanitarian crisis will become worse. The U.S. counterterrorism campaign against a resurgent al-Qaeda in the south, as well as the Yemeni franchise of the Islamic State, will become more difficult. To make matters worse, the Houthis claim to have just shot down a U.S. drone operating over Yemen, the second in recent months.

Where to start unpacking this mess? For the past four years, a Saudi-led coalition of Arab states has been fighting the Iran-backed rebel militia known as the Houthis, who seized large parts of Yemen from a weak government in 2015. Tens of thousands of civilians have died, either from bullets and bombs, or from starvation and disease attending the conflict.

The tragedy is deepened by its pointlessness. Far from being beaten, the Houthis have grown bolder, lobbing missiles and drone attacks deep into Saudi territory.

Inevitably, cracks in the coalition are showing. The United Arab Emirates, which carried the burden of fighting on the ground—the Saudi effort has been mainly aerial—has decided to reduce its footprint. This, in turn, has surfaced old Yemeni fault lines, between north and south.  

If you are of a certain age, you may remember they used to be separate countries: the conservative north ruled from Sanaa, and the socialist south, from Aden. Despite unification in 1990, many southerners have chafed at northern rule. Separatists rose up in 1994, but were easily defeated by the forces of the longtime dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Since the Houthis are primarily a northern force, the Saudi-led coalition—specifically, the UAE—was able to recruit many southerners against the militias. Now that the Emiratis are pulling out, a group known as the Southern Transitional Council, seems to be pushing for formal secession.

Fighting broke out between the STC and Saudi-backed government forces, first in Aden and then across the south. The government, led by the president-in-exile Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, accused the UAE of supporting a coup. (The Emiratis denied this.) Coalition aircraft bombed the separatists, and the Saudis demanded a ceasefire.

For the moment, the separatists have agreed to stop shooting, but they are unlikely to abandon aspirations for an independent south. With their Emirati patrons distracted by the greater peril from Iran, and the Saudis now at the receiving end of attacks by the Houthis, the STC will try to create a fait accompli by taking progressively larger parts of the south.

They will not have it easy. In addition to the government’s ground troops and Saudi bombing runs, the separatists must contend with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. And the Houthis haven’t given up their hopes of taking Aden. On Aug. 1, Aden was hit almost simultaneously by a missile strike on a military parade and an attack on a police station by suicide bombers; the combined death toll exceeded 50. The Houthis said the missile was theirs; it is not yet clear who sent the suicide bombers, but al-Qaeda is the likeliest suspect. (It overran a military base the following day, killing 20.)

The terrorists will try to exploit the rift between the STC and the government—and the drawdown of Emirati forces. The Houthis will benefit, too, as will their patrons in Tehran, where they have now appointed an ambassador.

For Arabia Infelix, more tragedy awaits.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Gibney at jgibney5@bloomberg.net

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Bobby Ghosh is a columnist and member of the Bloomberg Opinion editorial board. He writes on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and the wider Islamic world.

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