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Merkel Didn't Give Johnson 30 Days to Fix Brexit

Merkel Didn't Give Johnson 30 Days to Fix Brexit

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Throughout the Brexit negotiations, the U.K. government and its European interlocutors have spoken in different languages to one another. But the closer the Oct. 31 deadline draws, the more deliberate the misunderstanding appears to be. The most recent exhibit: The glaring difference between German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s actual words to Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Wednesday and how they have been reported in parts of the British media.

At a press conference in Berlin, Johnson reiterated his comments to European Council President Donald Tusk that any deal must exclude the so-called Irish backstop – a provision that would keep the U.K. inside the EU’s customs union so as to avoid reinstating customs checks on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

In response, Merkel said the following. The translation from the German is mine, and the lengthy quote unavoidable:

This is basically an expression of an unsolved problem. The moment one comes to grips with it and says, “We propose this and that by way of solving it,” the backstop is no longer necessary as a placeholder. Because then one would know what the future relationship between the European Union and Great Britain, especially between Northern Ireland and the EU member state, the Republic of Ireland, will look like. This means the backstop has always been a fallback position. If one removes this position, if there is a solution, a way to do this… it has been said that we’ll probably find it in the next two years. But one could also, maybe, find it in the next 30 days. Why not? Then we’ve taken a big step forward. We must make an effort to find something like this.

British media, from wildly pro-Brexit tabloid The Sun to the relatively neutral BBC, have followed Johnson’s interpretation of these words: Namely, that Merkel is open to dropping the backstop if the U.K. delivers an alternative solution within 30 days. To me, that  reading looks incorrect. It is, I suspect, deliberately so.

The U.K. has been told time and time again that as soon as a workable solution is found to the problem of the Irish border, the backstop won’t be necessary. The same discussion played out in December between Merkel and Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May. In February, Merkel said again that a “creative” solution to the future relationship between the EU and the U.K. would obviate the need for the backstop. Last month, she repeated that the measure could be “overwritten” by a solution that could be included in the political declaration about the future relationship. Other EU leaders and negotiators have said the same thing, too.

Not once – and certainly not on Wednesday – did Merkel say she was willing to remove the backstop from the legally binding text of the Brexit deal. Every time, the words “future relationship” were mentioned. That is the subject of the non-binding political declaration. There, arrangements can be described that will cancel the backstop as soon as they are implemented.

That reference to 30 days? A mere reminder that the clock is ticking – and, in all likelihood, a mocking response to what Johnson must have thought a clever barb about reaching a deal. Minutes before, he had said, in heavily accented German, “Wir schaffen das” – “We can do it.” That, of course, echoed Merkel’s now infamous remark at the outset of the 2015 refugee crisis, when she said she wouldn’t turn back migrants seeking asylum in Germany.

As everyone knows now, Merkel’s pledge turned out to be somewhat overoptimistic. Germany was biting off more than it could chew, and the governing parties are still grappling with the political fallout and with the challenge of integrating refugees. With his quote, Johnson didn’t just earn a forced smile from chancellor and some laughs from the journalists present; he got a dose of Merkel’s straight-faced irony: Now you try it in – finger to the wind – 30 days!

It is Merkel’s style always to seek a compromise. But she’s too cautious, and too good a negotiator, to blow a huge hole in the EU’s united position that any Brexit deal must not create a hard border in Ireland. She also knows from years of negotiating with the U.K. that it doesn’t have an acceptable solution to the border and that one is unlikely to emerge suddenly from a London brainstorm. If it does, its place is in the declaration about the future relationship.

Brexit-watchers in the U.K. media know all this, too. Sometimes, though, it feels better to hope for a miracle – and to look for a scapegoat in case one doesn’t happen. Merkel makes a convenient one, and she will be blamed endlessly if she fails to bend at the last minute. But at this point, it’s unclear what might make her do so – and this time, it’s not she who said “Wir schaffen das.”

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.

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