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Can PM Narendra Modi Trump The SP-BSP Alliance In UP?

The Samjawadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance in Uttar Pradesh ahead of the general election is seen as a setback for the BJP.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi. (Source: Press Trust of India)
Prime Minister Narendra Modi. (Source: Press Trust of India)

The alliance between the Samjawadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh ahead of the general election is seen as a huge setback for the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Questions are being asked if Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP’s arch campaigner, can lead it to victory in Uttar Pradesh—a politically important state that sends 80 representatives to the Lok Sabha.

Numbers, too, may not be on the BJP’s side, which is the ruling party at both the state and centre. If one were to go by the 2014 election vote shares, the SP and BSP together got 42 percent of the vote, which equals that of the BJP.

Can PM Narendra Modi Trump The SP-BSP Alliance In UP?

However, Political Analyst Amitabh Tiwari downplayed Uttar Pradesh’s importance. “It’s a wrong notion that Uttar Pradesh is the gateway to power,” he said in a conversation with BloombergQuint.

He also said it’s simplistic to expect complete transfer of votes between the BSP and SP. The success of the alliance, according to him, depends on how the loyal vote blocs of each party vote for candidates of the other.

In past 30 years, parties that haven’t done well in Uttar Pradesh have gone on to form the government (at the centre), be it (those led by) PV Narasimha Rao, Manmohan Singh or HD Deve Gowda.
Amitabh Tiwari, Political Analyst

According to a survey by the polling agency C-Voter survey conducted in December last year, if the SP-BSP alliance had been formalised before the 2014 elections, the BJP would have fallen 25 seats short of the majority mark of 272.

Yashwant Deshmukh, chief editor of C-Voter, said that Congress’ exclusion from the alliance is a tactical move, aimed at cutting the BJP’s vote share further.

Congress placing 80 candidates in Uttar Pradesh will actually eat up votes of the BJP, particularly in upper caste sections and that would indirectly help the alliance. I would like to believe that Congress being “left out” is rather strategic.
Yashwant Deshmukh, MD and Chief Editor, C-Voter Broadcast

And elections may not be just about arithmetic, according to senior journalist Vinod Sharma. Sharma told BloombergQuint that local issues will play a dominant role and the outcome of the election.

I don’t agree with the theory that BSP voters won’t vote for SP and vice-versa. Mind you, this election will be more about issues even though the opposition lacks a face to match PM Modi.
Vinod Shama, Senior Journalist

Watch the full conversation here: