Battle For Bengal: BJP Is A Rising But Nascent Threat
Why anything below 36 seats in Lok Sabha election 2019 would be a blow for Mamata Banerjee...
It is not a secret that the Bharatiya Janata Party sees West Bengal as the next big frontier politically. With 42 seats in the Lok Sabha, the state—a former Left bastion—has been in the grip of the Trinamool Congress since 2011. Most opinion polls predict the Mamata Banerjee-led party will bag more than 30 seats in the Lok Sabha election. But the story of West Bengal this time is more about the challenger. On paper, the battle is four-cornered, with the CPI(M) and the Congress in the fray, fighting separately. Local journalists and analysts BloombergQuint spoke to, however, said the real fight remains between the BJP and the TMC.
The BJP is projected to bag eight to nine seats, according to most opinion polls. For the saffron party, that won two seats in the state for the first time in 2014, even this would be a big improvement. The stakes are higher for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
In 40 of the 42 seats, it is a direct contest between the BJP and the TMC, according to Devadeep Purohit, chief of bureau politics and policies at The Telegraph.
“Mamata Banerjee may not agree, but the fact is anti-incumbency is kicking in,” Purohit said. “After eight years in power, people are looking for an alternative,” the journalist said, highlighting the huge crowd that attended Narendra Modi’s rally in Siliguri.
More and more people who are not happy with Mamata Banerjee are trying to find a new option. The BJP has come as a new option which explains the decline in the Left and the Congress’ vote bank.Devadeep Purohit, Chief of Bureau Politics and Policies, The Telegraph
Agreed Maidul Islam, professor at the Centre for Studies in Social Sciences. The BJP’s appeal lies not so much in its messaging, but more as a credible alternative to the TMC. “The BJP is more of a default opposition. Those who are anti-TMC don’t believe that the Congress and the Left would fight the TMC.” The Left, however, could lose deposits in many of the seats this time round, he said.
The BJP’s vote share in the 2014 general elections jumped 17 percent from 6 percent in 2009, according to data available with the Election Commission. In the assembly election, the party’s vote share rose to 10 percent in 2016 from 4 percent in 2011.
Yet, the BJP suffers from a sluggish party cadre in the state and the lack of a charismatic local leader, according to the panelists. Mamata’s positioning of herself as a national leader through challenges to Modi for a televised debate could also skew the pitch for the BJP.
Watch the full debate on how West Bengal could vote in the Lok Sabha elections with Devadeep Purohit and Maidul Islam: