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Election 2019: 42 Seats, Three Regional Leaders Who Want A National Role – The Story Of Andhra Pradesh And Telangana

Why the election in Andhra Pradesh is ‘do or die’ for Chandrababu Naidu?

(Source: BloombergQuint)
(Source: BloombergQuint)

Forty two Lok Sabha seats, three regional satraps and a battle for a national role—that sums up the fight in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

There have been two major elections in these states in the last five years. The two states voted as one in the last Lok Sabha election. After the bifurcation, separate state governments were formed based on 2014 poll results.

Since then, Telangana has seen an early assembly election last year—a gamble that paid off handsomely for Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao who won 88 of the 119 assembly seats in the state. Rao is now hoping to bank on that success and bag a lion’s share of 17 seats in his state. But to have a say on the national stage, the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti leader needs his “friend” YS Jaganmohan Reddy to win handsomely in neighboring Andhra Pradesh, too.

“There have been friendly relations between the TRS and the YSR Congress for some time now,” E Venkatesh, associate professor (political science) at University of Hyderabad, who also works with polling agency CSDS-Lokniti, told BloombergQuint during an interaction.

What is common between the two leaders is a backing of a federal front that envisions a grouping of non-Congress, non-Bharatiya Janata Party forming the next government.

One of the consensus issues bringing together these diversified political forces is that they want to be in the number game in national politics.
E Venkatesh, Associate Professor (Political Science), University of Hyderabad

Another common factor that Rao and Reddy share is a political rivalry with Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu.

Naidu, a former ally of the BJP, split from the National Democratic Alliance and put his weight behind bringing together an opposition alliance with the Congress. But in this election, it is a fight for survival for the TDP Leader. Naidu has to fight assembly elections and hopes to come back as chief minister while aiming to get most of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in his state so as to play a larger national role. He split from the NDA saying his demands for granting special category status to the state of Andhra Pradesh have not been met. His rival in the state, Jaganmohan Reddy, son of former Congress strongman YS Rajasekhara Reddy who died in 2009 in a chopper crash, has also made the special category status for Andhra Pradesh a major poll issue.

“The issue for special category status will be an overarching one in the state of Andhra Pradesh,” Nitin B, chief of Hyderabad bureau at The News Minute, said.

But Naidu is being seen on the back foot in his state with pre-poll surveys predicting big wins for Reddy. Naidu, though is not giving up without a fight.

Naidu has roped in national leaders like Farooq Abdullah, Mamata, Kejriwal to campaign for him. He hopes this will show voters he has influence outside the state too.
Nitin B, Hyderabad Bureau Chief, The News Minute

Meanwhile, the BJP and Congress have been marginalised in both states,” he said. “They have a presence but will not win any seats.”

The key question, however, is who Rao and Reddy will support at the centre if the need arises?

Watch the full debate here: