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Modi Or Rahul, Who Has More At Stake In The State Polls?

Why the assembly polls matter to Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi...

Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L); Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi. (Photo: Altered by <b>The Quint</b>)
Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L); Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi. (Photo: Altered by The Quint)

Five state elections are being seen as a semifinal for the 2019 general election as the results will show how voters rate Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s performance and also Rahul Gandhi’s ability to build an alternative narrative. But who has more at stake? BloombergQuint put that question to a panel of experts and here’s what they had to say.

AK Bhattacharya

The five state elections are more critical for Rahul Gandhi than for Narendra Modi, said AK Bhattacharya, editorial director of Business Standard. A loss for the Congress would not only be a big blow for the grand old party but would also dent hopes of anti-BJP alliances. A loss for the Bharatiya Janata Party would only make Modi that much more determined and focused to win in 2019, he said.

It is Rahul Gandhi’s election, in my view, but it is an election where Modi will definitely be impacted but he will get another chance in 2019 to redeem himself.
AK Bhattacharya, Editorial Director, Business Standard

Sadanand Dhume

Sadanand Dhume, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said the state assembly elections will be a test of Modi’s aura of invincibility. According to Dhume, a BJP loss would definitely hurt Modi’s image in the run-up to the 2019 general election.

If he loses two out the three Hindi-speaking states, no matter how the party wants to spin it, this means a major dent in that aura.
Sadanand Dhume, Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute

Amitabh Tiwari

Rahul Gandhi not only has to prove to his cadre that he can get the votes needed to challenge Modi but also convince the regional parties that he can lead a mahagathbandhan (grand alliance), said political commentator and strategist Amitabh Tiwari. While opinion polls suggest a Congress victory in Rajasthan, Tiwari said victory in only one of the five states will not be enough.

The Congress needs to win either Madhya Pradesh or Chhattisgarh or Telangana to show to the people that all this has happened because of Rahul Gandhi’s popularity.
Amitabh Tiwari, Political Commentator And Strategist

Poormima Joshi

A BJP loss in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan or Chhattisgarh would turn the narrative to economic issues where the BJP doesn’t fare very well, said Poornima Joshi, political editor at the Hindu Business Line. “Modi does well in focusing the election on himself and on the Gandhis personally.” Modi doesn’t do that well on issues linked to livelihood, she said.

Watch the entire discussion here: