DBS Sees Further Economic Slowdown In Second Half Of FY20 For India
Weakness in the crucial consumption sector is likely to be extended into the quarter along with tepid private sector activity.
India's economic growth is expected to slow further in the second half of the year, Singapore's DBS Bank said.
"Real GDP is likely to print 4.3 percent year-on-year in Q3 versus Q2's 5 percent, nearing the trough for this cycle," DBS said in its daily economic report.
Weakness in the crucial consumption sector is likely to be extended into the quarter along with tepid private sector activity.
New project announcements remain at a multi-year low, while production was depressed by weak consumer durables, non-durables, intermediate and capital goods, the bank pointed out.
Surveys by the Reserve Bank of India reflect downbeat consumer sentiments towards income and employment conditions. Indirect and direct tax collections also reflected slower demand, as did sluggish credit growth as banks and non-banks tightened due diligence, it said.
Providing a counterweight, fiscal spending likely quickened after slower disbursements in the first half of the year due to the general elections. Net trade is unlikely to be a drag with weak exports accompanied by a sharper fall in non-oil, non-gold imports.
"Under GVA [Gross Value Added], we expect 4.1 percent print, with most sectors barring public administration to have slowed in the quarter," said DBS. The third quarter economic numbers are due this week.