IMD Predicts Normal Monsoon, Issues Cyclone Warning For Western India
While the overall monsoon season will be normal in 2020, Western India needs to immediately brace itself from a cyclone, says IMD.
The southwest monsoon has hit Kerala, marking the commencement of the four-month long rainfall season, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday. The IMD has retained its forecast for normal monsoon in India this year at 102% of long-period average.
The Met Department has also issued a warning for a cyclonic storm brewing in the Arabian Sea. “The Depression over Eastcentral Arabian Sea moved northwards and lay centred about 300 km west-southwest of Panjim (Goa), 550 km south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 770 km south-southwest of Surat (Gujarat). It is very likely to intensify into a Deep Depression during next 12 hours and intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm during subsequent 12 hours,” IMD said as of 11:30 p.m. on June 1.
The cyclonic storm could make landfall near the border of Gujarat and Maharashtra on Wednesday afternoon.
Once the storm intensifies into a cyclone, it will be named Nisarga, as per the new list of cyclone names approved by the World Meteorological Organisation. It will be the second cyclone over North Indian Ocean this season after Amphan.
IMD Warns of Heavy Rains
Heavy rainfall is expected over Lakshadweep, north Kerala and coastal Karnataka during next 12 hours, IMD said in a release early Tuesday morning. The rains are projected to progress to south Konkan and Goa on June 2 and 3 and intensify into very heavy rainfall at isolated places.
India Meteorological Department warns of heavy to very heavy rainfall on Tuesday in parts of north Konkan and north Madhya Maharashtra region that may intensify into extremely heavy rain at isolated places on Wednesday and Thursday.
Parts of Gujarat, Daman, Dadra & Nagar Haveli is expected to witness heavy to very heavy rainfall on Wednesday that may intensify into extremely heavy rain in isolated instances on Thursday.
Cyclone Nisarga Nears Maharashtra-Gujarat Coast
Cyclone Nisarga To Bring Heavy Rains To Coastal Maharashtra
Expect heavy to very heavy rainfall in coastal areas of Maharashtra on June 3 as cyclone Nisarga advances over the Arabian Sea, IMD said at a media briefing on Monday.
IMD predicts heavy to very rainfall in districts including Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri, Thane, Raigad, Mumbai and Palghar. Isolated regions may receive extremely heavy rainfall of more than 20 cm on June 3, it said.
IMD Retains Forecast For Normal Monsoon
India Meteorological Department has retained the forecast for normal monsoon in India this year. IMD expects monsoon rains to be 102% of long-period average as the conditions become more favourable for good rains.
Region-wise monsoon distribution:
- North west: 107% of LPA
- Central India: 103% of LPA
- South peninsula: 102% of LPA
- North east: 96% of LPA
Monthly distribution of rains:
- July: 103% of LPA
- August: 97% of LPA
There is a higher probability of normal or above normal rainfall this monsoon season, according to the Met Department’s second forecast. The probability forecasts suggest a very low probability of deficient rains.
Probability Forecasts:
- Deficient rains (Below 90% of LPA): 5%
- Below normal (90%-96% of LPA): 15%
- Normal rainfall (96%-104% of LPA): 41%
- Above normal (104%-110% of LPA): 25%
- Excess (Above 110% of LPA): 14%
Watch IMD Briefing
Maharashtra District-Wise Forecast
Rainfall Warning For India's West Coast
The Met department has forecasted light to moderate rainfall over Lakshadweep, north Kerala and coastal Karnataka on Monday with isolated instances of heavy rain.
South Konkan and Goa will also receive light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rain at isolated regions between June 1 and June 3.
North Konkan region and the rest of the Maharashtra coast will witness rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday. IMD warns it could get heavy in some regions and extremely heavy in isolated instances.
Rains will hit Gujarat, Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli on June 3, which could gain strength on June 4 with extremely heavy rainfall in isolated regions.
Brace For Landfall On June 3
The cyclonic storm could make landfall near the border of Gujarat and Maharashtra around Vapi on Wednesday.
Met Department Issues Warning To States
The IMD has four colour-coded warnings as per the intensity of any weather system — green, yellow, orange and red.
The IMD has issued an orange-colour coded warning to Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Goa and coastal Maharashtra for June 1. The same warning applies to coastal Maharashtra and Goa for June 2.
For June 3, a red-coloured coded warning has been issued to coastal Maharashtra and Goa and an orange coloured warning to Gujarat.
The red-coloured warning has been issued to coastal Maharashtra, Goa and the entire state of Gujarat for June 4, Sathi Devi, the head of the National Weather Forecasting Centre, said.
"An intense rainfall activity is expected due to the weather system," Devi added.
IMD Issues Red Alert For Coastal Maharashtra And Gujarat
The India Meteorological Department on Sunday issued a red-colour coded warning to coastal Maharashtra and Gujarat for June 4 in view of a cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea.
"A low pressure is currently over east central Arabian Sea and the Lakshadweep Islands. It is likely to intensify into a depression in the next 12 hours and a cyclonic circulation in the next 24 hours," the Cyclone Warning Division of the IMD said.
A low pressure area is the first stage of any cyclone.
"It is very likely to move nearly northwards initially till June 2 and then recurve north-northeastwards and reach near north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts around June 3," it added.