IMD Predicts Normal Monsoon, Issues Cyclone Warning For Western India
Visitors gather at Nariman Point before the Coronavirus Lockdown in Mumbai, India. (Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg)

IMD Predicts Normal Monsoon, Issues Cyclone Warning For Western India

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The southwest monsoon has hit Kerala, marking the commencement of the four-month long rainfall season, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday. The IMD has retained its forecast for normal monsoon in India this year at 102% of long-period average.

The Met Department has also issued a warning for a cyclonic storm brewing in the Arabian Sea. “The Depression over Eastcentral Arabian Sea moved northwards and lay centred about 300 km west-southwest of Panjim (Goa), 550 km south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 770 km south-southwest of Surat (Gujarat). It is very likely to intensify into a Deep Depression during next 12 hours and intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm during subsequent 12 hours,” IMD said as of 11:30 p.m. on June 1.

The cyclonic storm could make landfall near the border of Gujarat and Maharashtra on Wednesday afternoon.

(Source: IMD)
(Source: IMD)

Once the storm intensifies into a cyclone, it will be named Nisarga, as per the new list of cyclone names approved by the World Meteorological Organisation. It will be the second cyclone over North Indian Ocean this season after Amphan.

IMD Warns of Heavy Rains

Heavy rainfall is expected over Lakshadweep, north Kerala and coastal Karnataka during next 12 hours, IMD said in a release early Tuesday morning. The rains are projected to progress to south Konkan and Goa on June 2 and 3 and intensify into very heavy rainfall at isolated places.

India Meteorological Department warns of heavy to very heavy rainfall on Tuesday in parts of north Konkan and north Madhya Maharashtra region that may intensify into extremely heavy rain at isolated places on Wednesday and Thursday.

Parts of Gujarat, Daman, Dadra & Nagar Haveli is expected to witness heavy to very heavy rainfall on Wednesday that may intensify into extremely heavy rain in isolated instances on Thursday.

Cyclone Nisarga Nears Maharashtra-Gujarat Coast

Cyclone Nisarga To Bring Heavy Rains To Coastal Maharashtra

Expect heavy to very heavy rainfall in coastal areas of Maharashtra on June 3 as cyclone Nisarga advances over the Arabian Sea, IMD said at a media briefing on Monday.

IMD predicts heavy to very rainfall in districts including Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri, Thane, Raigad, Mumbai and Palghar. Isolated regions may receive extremely heavy rainfall of more than 20 cm on June 3, it said.

IMD Retains Forecast For Normal Monsoon

India Meteorological Department has retained the forecast for normal monsoon in India this year. IMD expects monsoon rains to be 102% of long-period average as the conditions become more favourable for good rains.

Region-wise monsoon distribution:

  • North west: 107% of LPA
  • Central India: 103% of LPA
  • South peninsula: 102% of LPA
  • North east: 96% of LPA

Monthly distribution of rains:

  • July: 103% of LPA
  • August: 97% of LPA

There is a higher probability of normal or above normal rainfall this monsoon season, according to the Met Department’s second forecast. The probability forecasts suggest a very low probability of deficient rains.

Probability Forecasts:

  • Deficient rains (Below 90% of LPA): 5%
  • Below normal (90%-96% of LPA): 15%
  • Normal rainfall (96%-104% of LPA): 41%
  • Above normal (104%-110% of LPA): 25%
  • Excess (Above 110% of LPA): 14%

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