Davos 2019: Why IHS Markit’s Nariman Behravesh Is ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ About India’s Growth
IHS Markit Ltd.’s Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh remains “cautiously optimistic” about India due to concerns over the pace of reforms.
“Growth has been good, but there are concerns about the pace of reforms,” he told BloombergQuint in an interview. “Anxiety about the pressure issues on the central bank remains.”
Investors became less pessimistic about emerging markets in the latter part of 2018 and the positive outlook is likely to continue into 2019, Behravesh said, adding that he does not see much downward pressure on the currencies, whether it is the rupee or other EM currencies. “That is positive for capital flows. We will see them going back into the merchant world—at least not in a huge way, but in a positive way.”
Earlier this month, he had predicted that trade conflicts, unstable political environment and tightening financial conditions across the world would lead to a further fall in the global economic growth in 2019, with even a slight risk of recession in the next few years.
While at Davos, he reiterated that the policy risk remains a “key risk” to the global growth. “If the governments, especially the U.S. and China, make a policy mistake vis-a-vis trade, that could be damaging for the global economy.”
Watch the full interview here: