Davos 2019: Key Insights From Gita Gopinath, Raghuram Rajan, Kenneth Rogoff And Other Economists
As this year’s edition of the World Economic Forum draws to a close, the mood was certainly gloomy. From International Monetary Fund’s Gita Gopinath indicating a moderation in global growth to Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff flagging off the beginning of the end in China’s growth story, economists offered very little good news for the business fraternity to cheer about at Davos.
IMF’s first female chief economist Gita Gopinath unveiled the updated World Economic Outlook at Davos that showcased a challenging future plagued with rising risks. Yet, India is expected to buck the trend and sustain its world-beating growth run for 2019 and 2020.
Former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan called for a statute to protect “the term and rank of a governor”. Rajan noted that lower inflation was a good thing for the economy but flagged higher core inflation.
IHS Markit’s Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh said he was “cautiously optimistic” on India’s growth story. However, the downward pressure faced by emerging market currency will not spill over into 2019, Nariman said.
International Energy Agency’s Executive Director Fatih Birol pegged the floor price for oil at $60/barrel and said the U.S. will seek to expand its shale oil production and expand its pipeline capacity.
Harvard University Professor Kenneth Rogoff raised concerns about China’s slowdown in growth. The American economist and the chess grandmaster said the slowdown was “much more fundamental on running out of steam on productivity”.
Columbia University Professor Adam Tooze said the U.S. banking system was neutralised as a source of crisis. He, however, said rising geopolitical tensions could be “catastrophic” and darken “horizons for humanity as a whole”.