Trump Warns Crisis to Worsen; Texas Deaths Jump: Virus Update

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. coronavirus outbreak will probably worsen before improving, and encouraged Americans to wear masks and avoid risky behavior.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that far more people were infected than previously reported in several corners of the U.S. California’s cases topped 400,000, while Texas had its second-deadliest day.

Covid antibodies in patients with mild symptoms fade quickly, raising concerns that their immunity from a future infection may not last very long, researchers said in the New England Journal of Medicine. European regulators are preparing for the possibility of approving a vaccine this year after a flurry of promising results, even as comments from the U.K.’s chief medical officer reflected uncertainty in the scientific community.

Key Developments:

• Global Tracker: Cases pass 14.7 million; deaths top 611,000
• Economists say $1 trillion needed to avert U.S. disaster
• Seniors weigh long-term care plans against Covid-19 risks
• The inside story of how Europe landed its massive stimulus plan
• Covid-19 threatens to undo women’s economic progress, IMF says

Subscribe to a daily update on the virus from Bloomberg’s Prognosis team here. Click CVID on the terminal for global data on coronavirus cases and deaths.

Trump Warns of Worsening Crisis (6:06 a.m. HK)

President Donald Trump rebooted his coronavirus briefings with a warning about a surge in U.S. cases even as he sought to reassure Americans that his administration has the crisis under control. He took a notably more reserved tone than in earlier briefings, encouraging Americans to wear masks and avoid risky behavior.

“We will defeat the virus,” Trump said. But he added: “It will probably, unfortunately, get worse before it gets better.”

U.S. Cases Rise 1.7%, Less Than Average (5:30 p.m. NY)

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. climbed 1.7% to 3.86 million as of 1:56 p.m. New York time, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg News. That was less than the average 1.9% increase over the past week. Deaths rose 0.5% to 141,426.

• California reported 9,231 new virus cases, a 2.4% increase and greater than the 14-day average of 8,606, according to state health data. The state had 61 new deaths, compared with the 14-day average of 95.
• Texas’s cases increased by more than 9,300, according to state health department figures. It had 131 new deaths, the second-highest daily tally since the pandemic began.
• Mississippi recorded the biggest daily increase in cases among states, according to the Johns Hopkins and Bloomberg data, with a 3.7% rise.

Texas Reports Its Second-Deadliest Day (5:10 p.m. NY)

Texas recorded 131 Covid-19 fatalities, the second-highest daily tally since the pandemic emerged, according to state health department figures.

The rise brought the total deaths to 4,151. New cases increased by more than 9,300 and the positive-test rate advanced for the first time in four days, reaching 15.05%. The state’s positivity rate has been above 10% since June 23.

Infections Far Exceed Reported Cases, CDC Estimates (3 p.m. NY)

Far more people were infected with the novel coronavirus than previously reported in several corners of the U.S., according to data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The agency conducted a survey looking at antibodies to the virus in 10 U.S. regions. It found prevalence was highly variable from one region to the next, but far higher than the reported number of cases across the board. The presence of antibodies in the blood is evidence that a person’s body had mounted an immune response to the coronavirus.

In the New York City metropolitan area, for example, the CDC estimated based on samples collected in March and April that 6.9% of the population had contracted the virus, a level that would be equivalent to at least 12 times the number of reported cases.

California Surpasses 400,000 Cases (2:30 p.m. NY)

California reported 9,231 new virus cases, a 2.4% increase, pushing its total to 400,769, according to state health data. The most-populous state crossed the 400,000 milestone less than two weeks after hitting 300,000, and has doubled its confirmed cases in the past month. It’s now poised to surpass New York, with about 408,000 cases, as having the most infections in the U.S.

Hospitalizations have also reached a record, jumping 2.5% from the prior day to top 7,000 for the first time. Governor Gavin Newsom said Monday that California has enough hospital capacity, with Covid-19 patients occupying just 17% of available beds across the state. But he pointed out that some counties in more rural areas are seeing strains.

Houston Hospitalizations Seen Dropping (2:30 p.m. NY)

The number of Covid-19 patients in Houston-area hospitals is expected to decline for at least the next two weeks, based on current admission rates, according to the Texas Medical Center. Intensive-care hospitalizations have leveled off and virus-driven demand for regular hospital beds is actually declining, the medical center said on its website Tuesday.

Based on TMC data, the Covid-19 hospital census in Houston-area facilities peaked around July 12.

Florida Creates Nursing Homes for Virus Patients (1:15 p.m. NY)

Florida officials are trying to ease pressure on the health-care system by creating a network of nursing homes for people who have Covid-19 but aren’t sick enough to be hospitalized. The state now has about 1,400 beds where elderly Covid-positive patients can be isolated without taking up a bed in a hospital, said Governor Ron DeSantis.

“We cannot allow a contagious patient to be sent back into a long-term care facility that doesn’t have the capability to appropriately isolate them,” DeSantis said at a roundtable discussion about Covid-19 in Tallahassee. “It’s also helpful for hospitals to manage caseloads.”

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has been criticized for a March directive forcing nursing homes to accept patients released from hospitals who were infected with Covid-19.

Antibodies Fade Quickly, NEJM Report Says (12:20 p.m. NY)

Covid antibodies in patients with mild symptoms fade quickly, raising concerns that their immunity from a future infection may not last very long, researchers said in the New England Journal of Medicine.

The first analysis was done on antibodies taken an average of 37 days after symptoms began, with a second after about 86 days, or less than three months. The researchers determined that antibody levels had fallen precipitously, with a half-life of about 73 days between the two time frames. That raises concern that immunity may not last long in people who develop a mild infection, which accounts for the majority of cases.

The results call for caution regarding antibody-based “immunity passports,” herd immunity and perhaps vaccine durability, especially in light of short-lived immunity against common human coronaviruses, according to the researchers led by F. Javier Ibarrondo, from the David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California Los Angeles.

N.Y. Quarantine List Grows to 31 States (12:08 p.m. NY)

Ten states were added to New York’s quarantine list and one was removed, for a new total of 31, Governor Andrew Cuomo said: Alaska, Delaware, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Virginia and Washington. Minnesota was removed.

Cuomo said he’s looking at potentially adding territories, such as Puerto Rico, to the mandatory quarantine list. The advisory is based on a seven-day rolling average of the number of positive tests in excess of 10%, or the number of positive cases exceeding 10 per 100,000 residents.

Florida Hospitalizations Set Daily Record (10:55 a.m. NY)

Cumulative hospitalizations of Florida residents rose 2.4%, to 21,780. The daily increase of 517 is the most on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Austria Tightens Restrictions (10:05 a.m. NY)

Austria is tightening measures against the spread of the novel coronavirus again, dialing back part of its easing in the past few weeks as new infections have surged in various clusters. Border controls will tighten because a significant share of infections are coming from travelers returning from Balkan countries such as Serbia and Romania. Face masks will again be required in supermarkets, banks and post offices.

Tokyo to Urge Residents to Stay Home Over Weekend (8:33 a.m. NY)

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike is considering urging residents to avoid unnecessary trips outdoors during a forthcoming four-day weekend. The holiday was originally scheduled to celebrate the start of the Tokyo Olympic Games, now postoponed until 2021.

Daily coronavirus cases in the Japanese capital rose are back above 200, with 237 cases reported on Tuesday. Tokyo has now seen more than 1,600 infections in the past week, while hospitalizations have risen almost fivefold in the past month.

Dutch Cases Nearly Double on Weekly Basis (8:10 a.m. NY)

Almost 1,000 new infections were reported in the Netherlands last week, according to the health agency RIVM. The total of 987 positive tests was almost double the amount from a week earlier. The percentage of tests coming back positive has increased, a further sign of a resurgence, RIVM said. The reproduction factor -- or R value -- rose to 1.29. A number below 1.0 is seen as preventing exponential growth in the number of cases and a second wave of infections.

First Vaccine May Be Approved in 2020: EU Regulator (8:02 a.m. NY)

European regulators could approve the first vaccine against Covid-19 this year, after a flurry of trials by drugmakers leading the race showed promising results.

“We are preparing ourselves for that possibility so that we as regulators will be ready,” Marco Cavaleri, head of anti-infectives and vaccines at the European Medicines Agency, said in an interview Tuesday. “It will be a matter of seeing whether this data could be sufficient for allowing any kind of approval by the end of 2020.”

Separately, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s senior medical adviser, Chris Whitty, said there is only a slim chance of an effective vaccine being available by Christmas, even as the University of Oxford reported progress on its initiative.

Hong Kong Denies Lockdown Speculation (7:26 a.m. NY)

Hong Kong’s government said speculation the city would be locked down in coming days was false after reporting 58 additional local cases on Tuesday, 24 of which were of unknown origins. The Asian financial hub has been taken off-guard by the sudden eruption of infections, close to half of which are untraceable.

While other places in the region like Australia are also facing aggressive resurgences, their hospital bed vacancies and testing capabilities appear to outstrip those of Hong Kong’s.

U.K. Budget Deficit Swells on Stimulus (7:20 a.m. NY)

U.K. government borrowing soared to almost 130 billion pounds ($165 billion) in the first three months of the fiscal year amid the towering cost of supporting the economy through the coronavirus crisis. The Office for National Statistics said Tuesday that the budget deficit stood at 35.5 billion pounds in June alone, leaving debt at almost 100% of GDP.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak fired the starting gun on a comprehensive review of government spending for the coming years, warning of “tough choices” for some departments.

Indonesia to Start Vaccine Trial (7:02 a.m. NY)

PT Bio Farma, an Indonesian state-owned drugmaker, plans to start human trials of Sinovac Biotech Ltd.’s vaccine next month and aims to begin commercial production early next year.

The country tied up with Beijing-based Sinovac to secure access to a vaccine as its own efforts to develop a deterrent against the pathogen is expected to take longer. The world’s fourth-most populous nation is the worst virus-hit country in Southeast Asia, with a death toll of 4,320 and confirmed cases nearing 90,000.

Oman Restricts Movement, Iran Deaths (6:04 a.m. NY)

Oman is restricting movement between provinces and closing public places and shops overnight after reporting its third-highest number of new cases. The regional travel restrictions start July 25 and will last for two weeks. Gatherings and collective celebrations of all kind are also banned, the Times of Oman reported.

Meanwhile, Iran saw its highest number of coronavirus fatalities in one day at 229 in the past 24 hours, taking the death toll to 14,634.

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