Vaccination Timeline For Those Above 45 Years
People wait at a Covid-19 vaccination center set up at a municipal hospital in Pune, Maharashtra on May 5, 2021. (Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg)

Vaccination Timeline For Those Above 45 Years

By the time you read this India will have administered 18 crore vaccine doses — 17,91,77,029 crore was the provisional figure released at 9.23 p.m. on May 13.

Most of these (17.52 crore doses) have been procured by the centre for those above 45 years, health care and frontline workers. States were allowed to procure and vaccinate those between 18-44 years starting May 1. So far 39.14 lakh doses have been administered to the younger cohort, even as the vaccine supply has ebbed.

When it comes to India’s vaccine supply there’s only question that most of us want answered — when will our turn come?

If you are in the 18 to 44 years group then BloombergQuint estimates you have an at least one in four chance to receive one jab by mid-August or so.
Read more here - How Long Will It Take For India To Vaccinate 18-44-Year Olds

If You Are 45+, A Health Care Or Frontline Worker – Read This

The centre has limited its responsibility to vaccinating those above 45 years and all healthcare and frontline workers across India. That eligible population is estimated to be approximately 30 crore people. To vaccinate them 60 crore doses are required (two doses a person). The centre, which has been driving the vaccine policy since the start of this pandemic in 2020, has so far ordered 35.6 crore doses. Orders for the remaining 24.4 crore doses have yet to be placed.

Vaccine Supply So Far...

  • Doses Needed: 60 crore
  • Doses Ordered: 35.6 crore
  • Doses Received: 17.92 crore
    - Doses Utilised: 17.52 crore
  • Doses Pending Receipt: 17.68 crore
    - To Be Received In May: 1.68 crore
    - To Be Received By July end: 16 crore

The government’s vaccination data makes clear that 4.05 crore people in this cohort have received both doses. That leaves 25.94 crore people yet to receive doses, some the second one and some both. BloombergQuint’s calculation suggests another 9.42 crore people have received there first dose whereas 16.52 crore have received neither.

Vaccinations So Far...

  • Eligible Population: Approximately 30 crore people
  • Both Doses Received: 4.05 crore people
  • Remaining To Be Vaccinated: 25.94 crore people
    - Those Who Have Received One Dose: 9.42 crore people
    - No Doses Received Yet: 16.52 crore people

The centre needs 42.48 crore more doses to complete full vaccination of this target group. Some 40 lakh doses are pending utilisation from the orders delivered. Another 17.68 crore doses are ordered and to be delivered by July-end. That’s a total of 18.08 crore doses. Assuming the centre’s policy to prioritise 2nd doses continues, that supply is enough to administer second doses to those 9.42 crore people who have only received their first jab, and partly innoculate (one dose) another 8.66 crore people. That will leave 7.87 crore people in this category that would not receive a single dose at the end of this order cycle.

While the doses are expected to be delivered by July-end, administering of vaccines will take further time. The average daily vaccination rate in April was 28 lakh per day and has dropped to 20 lakh per day in the past 10 days. Depending on the frequency and predictability of vaccine supply, it comes in batches, it could take up to late August to utilise the doses currently ordered.

That means, by late August — there will still be 7.87 crore people in this cohort of 30 crore that may not have received a single dose.
 Vaccination Timeline For Those Above 45 Years

Of course, if the central government steps up ordering and the vaccine supply is available, the pendency will reduce.

This is the best case guestimate based on where things stand today.

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