With most investors spending the majority of their time reading and thinking about the coronavirus, it would be fair to say that their minds are now firmly “anchored” by the crisis. As Kahneman and Tversky showed 40 years ago, anchoring impacts our ability to think rationally. 300 years ago, Thomas Bayes created a pathbreaking theorem that can be used to rationally think about the risks around Covid-19. Applying Bayes’ Theorem shows ...