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Stabilization or Bounce? China Weekend Data May Help Give Answer

Stabilization or Bounce? China Weekend Data May Help Give Answer

China’s slew of economic readings Saturday are forecast to show the rebound at the end of the first quarter consolidated in April, suggesting policy makers may remain sidelined for a while longer as curbing debt and reforming overcapacity industries take priority.

Industrial output is forecast to rise 6.5 percent in April from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists late Thursday. That would be a pullback from March’s sharp post-Chinese-new-year-holiday bounce, though stronger than most 2015 readings.

Stabilization or Bounce? China Weekend Data May Help Give Answer

Retail sales are seen increasing 10.6 percent in April from a year earlier. That would add to evidence -- including a 39 percent surge in revenue for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. in the March quarter -- that Chinese shoppers remain a pillar of strength for the economy.

Stabilization or Bounce? China Weekend Data May Help Give Answer

Fixed-asset investment is seen climbing 11 percent in the January-April period from a year earlier as stimulus continues to filter through the economy.

Stabilization or Bounce? China Weekend Data May Help Give Answer

The reports -- scheduled for release Saturday at 1:30 p.m. in Beijing -- come as global investors look for cues on the sustainability of a debt-fueled pick up in March and as top policy makers signal a shift away from further stimulus. China’s communist leaders took to their main mouthpiece this week to repudiate credit-fueled growth and re-emphasize structural reforms.

Stronger-than-forecast readings may add to economist projections China’s policy makers will refrain from additional monetary easing. Weaker readings may do the reverse, suggesting March’s rebound was a temporary pick up after the nation got back to work after February’s week-long lunar new year holiday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Malcolm Scott in Hong Kong at mscott23@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Malcolm Scott at mscott23@bloomberg.net, Jeff Kearns