Economists Say China’s Slowdown Is Yet to See Bottom

(Bloomberg) --

Economists are cautious about China’s growth outlook after retail sales and industrial output slowed further in October.

Julia Wang, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc, said on Bloomberg TV that the key takeaway here is that “we are not yet stabilizing,” and the momentum in the economy is still one of a slowdown. She said “we are a little bit worried” that the slowdown will spread to the job market in 2020, and that will hurt consumer spending -- which she thinks is actually holding up, today’s retail-sales figures notwithstanding. Wang also says that, about one-and-a-half years along, this is the sharpest manufacturing slowdown China has seen in recent decades.

Capital Economics’ Martin Rasmussen echoed HSBC’s Wang in saying that China is yet to see a bottom in the slowdown. “Not only were last month’s data weak, but further weakness lurks ahead. Real estate is primed for a further moderation as financing to the sector is being squeezed by a regulatory crackdown,” he said.

Meanwhile, Raymond Yeung of ANZ says the numbers confirm an industrial recession is underway. He doesn’t think a trade deal will transform things given the domestic factors dragging on growth.

For more on China Releases October Industrial Production, Retail Sales Data, click here for our TOPLive blog.

To contact the reporters on this story: Chris Anstey in Tokyo at canstey@bloomberg.net;Enda Curran in Hong Kong at ecurran8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tal Barak Harif at tbarak@bloomberg.net, Foster Wong, Adrian Kennedy

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.