China Sees Fewest Births in 2018 Since Mao's Great Famine
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Births in China dropped to the lowest level in almost 60 years in 2018, signaling the country’s looser two-child policy has done little to reverse its slowing birthrate, and worsening the outlook for growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
The number of babies born last year fell by some 2 million from 2017, to 15.23 million, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday. Demographer He Yafu said it was the least since 1961 and the third-lowest since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
The demographics stand to fuel concerns about China’s economy, which is on a long-term slowing trajectory even as signs of stabilization suggest efforts to cushion its deceleration are taking hold. China’s expansion was the slowest since the 2009 financial crisis last quarter, as the government grapples with a debt cleanup and ongoing trade war with the U.S.
Signs of a steep drop in birth numbers had already emerged, as China’s major cities disclosed their birth figures for 2018. Wenzhou, a manufacturing hub and wealthy coastal city, saw its birth number drop to the lowest level in 10 years. A neighboring city, Ningbo, estimated births declined by about 17 percent.
A top Chinese research institution projected the population could start shrinking as soon as 2027 -- three years earlier than expected -- if the birth rate held steady at 1.6 children per woman. The population -- at 1.39 billion in 2017, and the world’s largest -- could fall to 1.172 billion by 2065, it said.
Monday’s figures are the lowest since the turmoil of Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward, during which China’s aggressive push to develop industrial power resulted in widespread famine. The total population fell by 10 million in 1960, with a large number believed to have starved to death.
In 2016, China eased its family planning policies to allow parents to have as many as two children, instead of one. The nation’s parliament struck “family planning” policies from the latest draft of a sweeping civil code slated for adoption in 2020, the clearest signal yet that the leadership is moving to end limits on the number of children families can have.
The country’s infamous “one-child” policy left China with a worker shortage and an aging population comprised of some 30 million fewer women than men. China’s State Council last year projected that about a quarter of its population will be 60 or older by 2030 -- up from 13 percent in 2010. China’s labor force fell by 4.7 million in 2018 -- the seventh consecutive year of decline.
“China should not only fully relax the family planning policy, but also introduce policies to encourage births,” said demographer He, who advocates for family planning policy changes based in Guangdong. “Long-term low fertility rates will bring a series of negative effects on the economy and society, leading to the increasingly serious aging of the population, a decreasing labor force and a higher dependency ratio.”
“As the number of fertile women is expected to continue to decline in the years to come amid a decreasing willingness to bear children, China will continue to see its birth number decline,” He said.
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.