China’s Growth Forecasts Cut by Economists From Barclays to UBS
China’s Growth Forecasts Cut by Economists From Barclays to UBS
(Bloomberg) -- Economists downgraded their forecasts for China’s economic growth for this year after data Monday showed a weakening in the third quarter and signs there could be a further slowdown in coming months.
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., Barclays Plc, DBS Group Holdings Ltd., UBS AG and others lowered their full-year projections closer to 8% or lower. Many said the power crunch will persist into the fourth quarter and hurt growth.
| Current 2021 Forecast | Previous Forecast | |
|---|---|---|
| Daiwa Capital Markets | 8.4% | 9.2% |
| National Australia Bank | 8.3% | 8.7% |
| DBS | 8% | 8.8% |
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia | 7.9% | 8.1% |
| ANZ | 8% | 8.3% |
| China Renaissance | 8.2% | 8.4% |
| Barclays | 8% | 8.2% |
| UBS | 7.6% | 8.2% |
People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said Sunday the recovery remains intact even though growth momentum has “moderated somewhat.” He forecast the economy would expand about 8% this year, exceeding Beijing’s official target of above 6%.
Raymond Yeung, ANZ’s chief economist for Greater China said gross domestic product growth will ease further to 3.6% in the fourth quarter after slowing sharply to 4.9% last quarter.
China Renaissance cut its fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast to 5% from 5.9% previously and reduced its projection for 2022 to 5.6% from 5.7%, according to a report by analysts led by Bruce Pang. Daiwa Capital’s Kevin Lai sees growth weakening to just 2.5% this quarter as the power crisis undermines GDP.
Economists say Beijing will likely provide targeted fiscal and monetary support rather than deliver widescale stimulus. China Renaissaince sees support for high-tech and innovative firms, small businesses and the green industry through tools including another reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for banks.
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With assistance from Bloomberg