China’s Growth Forecasts Cut by Economists From Barclays to UBS
(Bloomberg) -- Economists downgraded their forecasts for China’s economic growth for this year after data Monday showed a weakening in the third quarter and signs there could be a further slowdown in coming months.
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., Barclays Plc, DBS Group Holdings Ltd., UBS AG and others lowered their full-year projections closer to 8% or lower. Many said the power crunch will persist into the fourth quarter and hurt growth.
|Current 2021 Forecast||Previous Forecast|
|Daiwa Capital Markets||8.4%||9.2%|
|National Australia Bank||8.3%||8.7%|
|Commonwealth Bank of Australia||7.9%||8.1%|
People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said Sunday the recovery remains intact even though growth momentum has “moderated somewhat.” He forecast the economy would expand about 8% this year, exceeding Beijing’s official target of above 6%.
Raymond Yeung, ANZ’s chief economist for Greater China said gross domestic product growth will ease further to 3.6% in the fourth quarter after slowing sharply to 4.9% last quarter.
China Renaissance cut its fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast to 5% from 5.9% previously and reduced its projection for 2022 to 5.6% from 5.7%, according to a report by analysts led by Bruce Pang. Daiwa Capital’s Kevin Lai sees growth weakening to just 2.5% this quarter as the power crisis undermines GDP.
Economists say Beijing will likely provide targeted fiscal and monetary support rather than deliver widescale stimulus. China Renaissaince sees support for high-tech and innovative firms, small businesses and the green industry through tools including another reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for banks.
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