Tonight’s Debate Puts Passion and Pragmatism on the Same Stage

(Bloomberg Businessweek) -- Tonight’s Democratic showdown in Houston features, for the first time in one arena, the three frontrunners for the party’s presidential nomination: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders. It also brings together the two main emotional currents in the race: electability and enthusiasm.

Voters’ perception that Biden is the most electable Democrat has buoyed him since he entered the race, while Warren and Sanders have translated intense loyalty into huge crowds and fundraising numbers, lifting them above the large pool of also-rans that will fill out the stage.

But to win the nomination, each of the three frontrunners needs what another one possesses. 

Despite their passionate followings, Warren and Sanders each consistently trails Biden in head-to-head matchups with Trump. The latest Quinnipiac University poll shows Biden leading Trump by 16 points, besting Sanders (+14) and Warren (+12). In key swing states such as Wisconsin, the effect is even more pronounced. A Sept. 4 Marquette University Law School poll of the state found Biden leading Trump by 9 points, again topping Sanders (+4) and Warren (tied).

Biden partisans attribute his lead to what they consider the extreme lefty-ness of his top challengers. Citing Warren’s support for a “Medicare for All” plan eliminating private health insurance, former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell says, “It dooms her in a general election. It is death, in the fall, to be for eliminating private insurance, unless Trump is one step away from a mental hospital.” In the July 30 debate, Warren dodged a question about whether Medicare for All would raise taxes, saying that it would lower overall medical costs. Sanders said taxes would likely go up.  The senator from Vermont faces the same issue on health care as the senator from Massachusetts, Rendell says, “although I give him credit for being straightforward about it.”

The former vice president, though, could face problems of his own if he can’t improve his tepid show of support. Warren’s crowd dominated last weekend’s New Hampshire Democratic Party convention, giving the Massachusetts senator a rapturous reception. In her speech, Warren alluded to Biden’s cautious centrism, a turnout-killer she believes cost Democrats the 2016 election. “People are scared,” Warren told the crowd. “But we can’t choose a candidate we don’t believe in because we’re scared. And we can’t ask other people to vote for someone we don’t believe in. I am not afraid and for Democrats to win, you can’t be afraid either.”

Since January, that message has resonated with a growing share of voters, elevating Warren into second place in many polls. A potentially worrisome sign for Biden (and Sanders) is that a series of surveys show Warren is the most popular second choice for Democratic voters who currently support other candidates, an indicator that if their top choice were to stumble, she’s poised to add to her support. An August 16 Pew Research Center poll found that Warren, at 21 percent, was the leading alternative in the field—and furthermore stood to claim 22 percent of Biden’s supporters if they are forced to move on to their second choice.

In contrast, neither Biden nor Sanders is positioned for a similar gain, respectively drawing 11 percent and 12 percent of “second choice” support in the Pew poll. Biden’s allies rush to point out that this won’t matter if his support remains as steady as it has been so far. Rendell, for one, says passion is overrated. “A wildly enthusiastic vote and a mildly enthusiastic—even a tepidly enthusiastic vote—all count for one vote,” he told me. 

The bigger threat to Biden, he added, is Trump’s recent drop off in support. Weakening poll numbers have erased the president’s lead in head-to-head matchups with several Democrats besides Biden, which could diminish the former vice president’s current edge and prompt Democrats to choose a more exciting alternative. 

“I think it helps them,” Rendell admitted, of Trump’s recent struggles. “As the polls keep widening and everyone seems to be beating Trump, it becomes less of an advantage.” One thing that could inoculate Biden against losing support: if he delivers a strong debate performance while flanked by his two top rivals.

Passion may never be Biden’s main source of appeal. But it’s necessary for a winning candidate to generate at least some. “It doesn’t have to be the Beatles coming to America,” says David Plouffe, Obama’s 2008 campaign manager. “Quiet commitment may be enough. But to win, you ultimately have to inspire enough people to volunteer, fundraise, and show up when it counts.”

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jillian Goodman at jgoodman74@bloomberg.net

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